Chance a senior for CMU SCS ED, Stanford, and UMD-CP Banneker/Key?

Hi! I’m applying to CMU SCS ED, Stanford, UMD-CP for Banneker/Key scholarship, & safeties as an OOS Asian (Cambodia) male and CS major from a non-competitive HS in TX. Please give me an honest opinion, although a number/range (ex. 5% chance, 5-10% chance) would be preferred! Appreciate any feedback.
Applying for financial aid

Stats:
4.0 UW, 4.75 W (G 10-12, which CMU & Stanford only look at)
3.86 UW, 4.5 W (G 9-12, which UMD will see)
1560 SAT w/o essay (800 math)
11 APs throughout all of HS (5s w/ two 4s)
Coursework all Honors / AP except for prereqs, Gym, Spanish Reg. in soph
Top 5% class rank
SAT Math II - 800
SAT Physics - 750 (debating whether or not to submit)
SAT Chem - 770
(FYI, CMU doesn’t consider SAT subject tests in any way)

Awards: ranked most important => least important
USACO Platinum - grinded for this in a year LOL
Performance DipLCM for Piano from London College of Music
National Merit Finalist
AP Scholar with Distinction
Won 1st prize Crescendo International Competition to play in Carnegie (Weill Hall)
PVSA Gold

ECs: ranked most important => least important
Coding Club (11-12), Prez (12)
Java volunteer teacher for non profit during junior year, >200 hrs
Piano - 10 years
Part time Kumon job over summer (12)
Know Python, C++, Java
NHS, Mu Alpha Theta, Spanish Honors Society, Math Team, School Honor Roll
Tennis, basketball, and running for fun

Essays will be good since I’m not applying to many schools
LORs will probably be 7-8/10 for counselor & APCS teacher

bump

I think that you are competitive at all of these schools. However, they are reaches. I would put your acceptance chances as lower than the overall acceptance rate at Stanford, and perhaps close to the overall acceptance rate at CMU. For UMD the issue is mostly that you are out of state. If you were in-state I would think that your chances would be excellent. Of course you are in-state at equally strong universities in Texas. I do not understand why you would pay out of state prices for UMD when you have UT Austin and TA&M as options in-state.

Given the excellent quality and relatively reasonable prices for your in-state public universities in Texas, I hope that you are also applying to several in-state public universities.

Thank you for your honest opinion! I will definitely be applying to in-state universities. FYI, for UMD, I am aiming for the full ride Banneker/Key scholarship. Throughout my whole application, what would you say my weakest point is?

have you got interview for “UMD-CP Banneker/Key scholarship”?
please update. Thanks very much and you are very strong candidate for all of those schools