I’m not into gaming this.
Take your best shot with ED or REA at the one place you’d regret not trying. Then develop a rational list of sure-bets, likely schools and a few reaches-- once you’ve established that they are affordable, and that students with your profile typically (or at least often) get accepted.
The notion that you’re trying to get in early to a school where you don’t know if the culture or fit is right for you, just because they have REA and you don’t think you can get in regular decision-- this seems like a waste of energy.