Chance and Match me plz (rewritten) [PA, pre-med, 3.8UW/4.2W, 1510, PSAT 1490 possible NMSF, <$60k]

I have also been looking at both Niche and Collegevine for their suggestions and chancing. What are your opinions on it? I understand that it isn’t very holistic and that there are other things than just SAT and GPA but from how I see things it is a pretty good metric of where I stand in comparison. LMK if I am wrong because I really am just trying to figure things out.

Also my school uses Naviance and I was looking at both the compare and the scatter grams. LMK if that’s accurate or not either

I understand that Princeton wasn’t on the list. But rather than running a zillion NPCs to see which of their reach schools might be generous enough, it can save time to go to arguably the most generous school, even if not on the list. If it doesn’t give them need-based aid, then there’s no purpose in looking for need-based aid at other schools. If it does give them need-based aid, then they’d obviously want to do it at all the schools on their list.

You’re a strong student and the vast majority of colleges in the U.S. would be thrilled to have you and would offer you merit aid to attend, bringing their sticker prices down significantly. Those schools, however, are generally not going to be the reach-for-all types of schools.

You gave some information about your geographic preferences, but can you answer some of these other questions so that we can better provide suggestions? Also, can you explain how you think UF, UVA, and UMich are different than Pitt? They’re all big, strong state schools, so if you’re looking for something different that’s different from Pitt, I’m wondering what the attraction was to these that made them additions to the list (i.e. so we know whether any other big state schools would be worth a mention).

Two notes about shotgunning:

  1. Realize how much work that the applications to most of the reach schools will require. Many will have 7-8 school-specific supplements, so if you have 10 reaches, that could be 70-80 supplements. That doesn’t include applications for honors, special scholarships, etc. Some people call the schools that are reaches for you rejective schools, as they will reject the vast majority of their applicants. The majority of their applicants are well-qualified, but they’re going to get a no. You don’t want to have middling (or worse) supplements…you want supplements that will show why you’re a really great addition to that particular school, and that takes time. That time will also be while you’re taking all of your senior classes and doing all of your activities, etc. It can be a lot. Selecting the schools that you think are really the best fir for you and then having a more curated set of reaches may be a more successful application strategy.

  2. Think about your own personal makeup in terms of how you react to rejection which, as a strong student, you may not have much experience with. For some people, rejection is a fuel that makes them want to shine even brighter wherever they land, proving the “rejectors” what a bad mistake they made in not accepting them. For people like that, a reach-heavy list can be a reasonable decision. For most people, however, rejection can really sting and be a significant emotional and mental blow. People who end up receiving lots of rejection may then start to question their own self-worth and the worth of any options they do have (if all these these others rejected me, then anyone who accepted me must not be that great). I find that most people tend to do better with more acceptances than rejections, but it’s a very individual decision. I would give serious thought to your own mental makeup and perhaps talk with some trusted individuals who know you well as you decide what kind of balance to have on your college application list.

ETA:

If your school keeps its Naviance records updated, this is a fabulous source of information and probably your best one (apart from counselors at your school who will have more context than is visible to you via Naviance) in terms of chancing.

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75th percentile SAT of 1500
25th percentile GPA of 4.5

So your SAT is 10 points higher than their 75th percentile and 0.06 lower than the 25th percentile on the GPA. Essentially, I’d call that a wash. Thus, I’d still keep UF in the lower probability bucket for you (20-39%).

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ahhhhh - thanks. I googled but couldn’t find except what I did - which was tied to UF and held a health component.

Found this - BS/MD.

Thanks for the tip.

Medical Honors Program » College of Medicine » University of Florida

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So yes and no.

Shotgunning is ok as long as you have an assured and affordable safety and that’s Pitt.

But you still don’t want to waste time on schools that you know you can’t afford - the Ivies, Tufts, CMU, etc. as they don’t have any merit aid.

You say this: Yes I am just putting schools like BU, BC, Umich just to see some options pretty much. While they may not be the most realistic, you never rly know what could happen. BU “could” - they have merit. But over half the class is ED. BC has merit - some full rides. U Mich OOS zero chance (wasted app) and UVA you’d have to get the Jefferson - and it’s a ton of work - that’s where shotgunning makes zero sense - really hard app, going to burn you out. And don’t forget, if you to to a top school, you’ll be one of many - hard to stand out vs. going where you are the big dog!!!

A Vandy, WUSTL, etc. offer merit - so those are worth shotgunning - as could BC and BU. But Michigan and UVA - nope. Rice - yep. Emory - yep. W&L for the Johnson or SMU for the Presidential or College of Charleston for Fellows (you have MUSC right down the street) - yep.

As for UF - there’s no cutoff. Your 4.44 is below and yes it hurts. But 25% of kids get in with below a 4.5. And guess what, just because you have a 4.5 or 4.6 doesn’t mean you get in. It’s really a reach school for all but you have a chance - and they look at more - ECs, etc. But forget US News - which is crap - if you like UF, then look at UGA or since you like urban, add excellent FSU and U of SC with the top Honors College. You are looking at a magazine - and it’s making you feel like - I should be there - because it’s higher ranked. btw - there’s literally zero difference from Gainesville to the next state over which you eschewed - so don’t let ego stand in the way of where do you want to be four years, day after day after day. Do let future med school loans and budget concerns get in the way though.

Now if you get NMF or even if you don’t, I’ll disagree with this - my parents can afford undergrad and I’ll take out loans for med school.

How about - if my parents save a boat load on undergrad, they can help pay for med school so I can take out less loans?

Forget the location - if a school is $20K and they have $50K a year, can they take that additional $30K and help fund med school? Over four years, that’s $120K.

So sometimes there’s a location tradeoff.

If you get NMF, a school like U Houston (in a big city in Texas) is well respected and would give you free tuition - and there’s more.

So if you’re truly thinking about med school, I would put budget first, second, and third because it’s nice to say - sure, I’ll just take loans - but loans, especially large ones, are a huge stranglehold on your life. They eliminate your ability to make choices in the future.

You’ll often see headlines similar to this one that the NY Times published -
I’m a Doctor and Even I Can’t Afford My Student Loans

So if truly wanting med school, there are lower cost schools - really all over. Pitt would be a GREAT choice but if you really wanted to, you can go even lower - an Ohio U for example or perhaps a SUNY. TCNJ. Central Michigan, W Carolina, etc. - and that’s without NMSF.

The other thing you might consider is the LECOM option (as a back up). This is an assured DO (vs. MD). You don’t have to use it but if you don’t get into an MD program…

@momsearcheng daughter attends Rhodes, with this option - and they have many schools on the list. Rhodes is likely under $40K for you and is a very good LAC. But there are large and small colleges on the list.

So perhaps another “pathway” like the BS/MD program but with an easier launch if needed. Millersville, Indiana U of PA, and Kutztown are two public, so lower cost partners. You also have low cost publics like Florida Gulf Coast in beautiful Ft. Myers, Binghamton (sized like Pitt) and likely great merit, and more. The point - you can still crush it and go to med school but if it doesn’t work out, this can be an alternative path of getting that degree (a DO vs. an MD).

LECOM-AFFILIATED-COLLEGES-AND-UNIVERSITIES-2-16-24-2.pdf

Good luck.

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Thanks this was rly helpful to read. My school is a pretty good feeder school to a bunch of “reach for all” schools. I handle rejection fairly well I dont get fueled by it necessarily but I just shrug it off usually. I think you are right that I will be very busy my senior year already so I am currently trying to cut down on the completely unrealistic options (price-wise since my stats according to my school’s Naviance shows that Im a strong applicant for nearly all schools).

  • What size classes do you prefer? Medium? Around like 40-150 people not the huge 300 person lecture halls.
  • What kind of climate do you prefer? Doesn’t really matter. Preferably not stormy
  • Are there area(s) of the country that you prefer or prefer to avoid? I prefer north east, east coast, and Midwest, prefer to avoid Deep South that is not on east coast (excluding Texas as well im fine with Texas) (states like Misisipi, Alabama, Louisiana I would avoid as well as states like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and fly over states)
  • How do you feel about significant enthusiasm for intercollegiate sports? Don’t rly care about sports or sports teams
  • How do you feel about Greek life (fraternities/sororities)? Don’t really care about Greek life either since I feel it would hinder my education to join one.
  • Are there any particular interests (outside of being pre-med) that you would like to pursue in college? I want to possibly do a study abroad for a year maybe or a semester? Idk if this counts to answer this question.
  • Do you prefer urban, suburban, college town, or remote locations? Preferably cities that are similar to Pittsburgh or Boston. Also fine with places like Penn State’s campus just becaus it is so massive that it feels like a city.

THIS was very helpful. I have been trying to cut off the colleges from my list that are truly unattainable cost wise. Thank you so much for saying all this. I was also thinking about applying to UT Austin? LMK if that is a solid possibility or if It would be better to not waste my time applying to it. I really appreciate you giving a list of schools that offer good merit scholarships.

Thank you for the financial advice as well. I am really trying not to come out with a truckload of debt esp if med school doesnt even work out since med typically pays more than other occupations and it would be insanely hard to pay it off. Which is why i am looking for a major outside of bio as well since options are kind of limited with a bio degree

Maybe avoid the huge flagships then - UF, MIchigan, etc.

Often in the school catalogues you can see class sizes - but some of these will have big lecture halls and in some cases (major dependent) on line classes.

So maybe stay Pitt or smaller.

I’m going to throw another plug for the Charleston Honors College - school is above budget but if you get Fellows (invite only) - it will come in good. 10K kids - even my daughter’s regular classes are small (sometimes smaller than Honors) and you have the Medical U of South Carolina right down the street - so there’s research opportunities, etc. And it’s all right downtown - in the tourist zone.

Another “safety” option.

I think, given your desires, you should look for “fit” - which in your case includes budget, class size, urbanness vs. it’s ranked high so I feel like I belong.

At UM, nearly 8% of classes are 100+. Penn State is over 8%. Pitt doesn’t publish that info. A school like Charleston - less than 1% (because of the school size). Drexel 3%. Now it will be major dependent and will be more likely intro classes - but if you want smaller, the big flagships aren’t your place. Well over 1/4 of PSU classes are 40+ kids as an example whereas Michigan (you can’t afford) is a tad less than 1/4. At Drexel, it’s only 15%.

I mentioned Bing (low cost) - and it might be a nice sub. Great school - and only 18% 40+ students - so a nice compromise perhaps.

BU - btw - that’s a lot of coin - and yep, they have large class sizes vs. the others - so what’s the value there?

Dig beyond US News. Dig into the common data set - section I3 - and find the schools that meet your needs, not promote themselves and US News (which is simply making money). There are kids like you EVERYWHERE - the schools are ready and able to help you - but you want to be at one where you are happy. A US News rank doesn’t provide you happiness - as you’ll be somewhere for four years, day after day.

Below is a list of schools that you may want to consider that are highly likely to guaranteed to meet budget and which I think are highly likely to give you nice merit aid, even for those that have lower sticker prices. The vast majority are city schools, but I was trying to locate options that would feel/be different from Pitt and PSU since those are your baseline.

Extremely Likely (80-99+%)

  • DePaul (IL): About 14k undergrads at this Chicago school

  • Loyola Chicago (IL): About 12k undergrads at this Jesuit school

  • Loyola Maryland: About 4k undergrads at this Jesuit school and part of a consortium whereby students can take classes at other area schools like Johns Hopkins (about 1 mile away) and Goucher.

  • Marquette (WI): About 7700 undergrads at this Jesuit school in Milwaukee.

  • Saint Joseph’s (PA ): About 4800 undergrads at this Philadelphia school. Mid-sized Jesuit school that acquired U. of the Sciences a few years ago which definitely bolstered the science offerings here.

  • SUNY Geneseo (NY): About 3900 undergrads. This is not an urban location, but does participation in the tuition match program mean that it would cost no more in tuition than at PSU. It’s a different vibe from some of the other options, but if you wanted something different, this could be something to consider.

  • U. of Cincinnati (OH): About 31k undergrads. If you like the co-op aspect of Drexel, then this is another school where co-ops are a big focus.

  • U. of Texas – Dallas: About 21k undergrads. This school has a very generous NMF scholarship which attracts a lot of strong students to this school. It’s known as more of a STEM-focused school.

Likely (60-79%)

  • George Washington (D.C.): About 11k undergrads and a very urban campus. Only a likely if you show significant demonstrated interest.

  • Southern Methodist (TX): About 7100 undergrads at this Dallas school

  • Texas Christian: About 11k undergrads at this Fort Worth school

Toss-Up (40-59%)

Lower Probability (20-39%)

Low Probability (less than 20%)

Seconding the suggestions of U. of Houston and Binghamton as well.

In looking at your response to Tsbna44, are you looking for super low cost options or are you looking for schools that will meet the budget, or…? Does the idea of LECOM appeal to you? Trying to gauge what it is you’re looking for, or if you’re still in the learning phase.

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Texas residents who graduate in the top 6% of their class (and I think it’s moving up to top 5%) are automatically accepted to UT, which means there’s very little space for anyone else. So for students who are not in the top 5% of a Texas graduating class, it should be considered a reach. If you were accepted, I suspect you would be paying the sticker price of about $56k (or more, depending on your major source).

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Time waste.

Well over budget. Hard in. No merit. Tuition (major dependent) is $40,582 to $48,712 and room/board is $14964 - and that’s 2024/25 - not the future.

Now - you want urban - then apply to U of Arizona, as an example. Great merit, close to downtown.

For the most part, especially a med school applicant, a flagship is a flagship is a flagship.

Yes - a UT is an Alabama is a Colorado is an Oregon. Now, you’ve already eliminated some areas (the South) and you clearly like urban.

So then look for the urban schools that are flagships - and those which make financial sense.

If I start with the As and work my way up.

  1. U of Arizona and Arizona State could make sense. Both will hit budget

  2. UCF would be the Florida school - not quite urban but close to downtown Orlando - and would hit budget.

  3. U Kentucky - downtown Lex is nice. It’s not the South - but some think it’s the South. Look on a map.

  4. UMN - that might hit your sweet spot. Great school - and urban. Likely $40K-ish with merit.

  5. UNM - a grittier place but really low cost and med facilities nearby. You’d “crush” the budget. Like by nearly $30K - and Albuquerque has lots of nearby nature and beautiful scenery.

  6. U of SC - mentioned - you’d be well under budget. It and ASU have arguably the top two Honors Colleges in the country to boot (for a small fee) and the Honors dorm at Arizona is - just wow - with a cafetaria at the bottom and mental health and gym facilities adjacent.

  7. Tennessee - it’s in downtown Knoxville.

So the Southern schools are loaded with Northerners - but if you want merit/low cost, you go to who gives it - and that’s schools I mentioned. Who doesn’t - the UFs/FSUs (but they hit budget at full price) - but UVA/UNC/U Texas/Wisconsin/Colorado, etc - these schools that don’t need to discount, don’t.

The reason thousands from the NE, MW, and W flock to Southern schools like Bama is - a kid like you (non NMF) is $20K a year.

So you have to follow the same rule - of the urban schools - who will either assuredly or near assuredly get me to budget - and I listed a bunch.

UMN may be that big name school and it’s in the big city - that may work for you as an alternative.

But in the end, if med school is a real possibility (easy to say now), don’t take your eye off the budget - first, second and third. Fortunately, there will be those schools that meet your need. In essence, UMN fits you better than UM (it’s urban and it’s likely within budget) - so in your case, forget it’s not quite as prestigious - it’s actually a better fit!!!

Size of class isn’t a huge factor to me though. I used Niche to help figure out things since their grading system of schools is pretty good.

I dont really use US News since colleges buy their rankings. I found some guy that graded the schools on a bunch of factors. I also use NIche like I said before which also has a pretty good ranking system/grading system. I think I understand what it is that I have to look for and how I will narrow down my list.

What do you think is a good number of schools to apply to (shotgunning) while not burning out and being realistic? 10-12 good?

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Just my opinion (since you asked) but then we have to PM if you want to talk - as they don’t want one person only in the chain. You can click on my name and then send me a note.

I’d say kid dependent.

I already sense you will be at Pitt.

So if it’s me -

I’d apply:

Pitt
UMN (I decided I like it for you :slight_smile:
Drexel - I wouldn’t but you seem to like it
Vandy
Emory
WUSTL
College of Charleston (because I think it fits you)
Bing (not quite urban but LECOM, solid, and will beat cost)

That’s it.

Others apply to 30.

My kids applied to 15 (too much for him) and 21 (just right for her) - and both had common names to yours.

Others - if you are local and know you are headed to Pitt - may apply to one or three.

What you’ll find it -

  1. For some schools, it’s a lot of time and essays and you think you can do it - til you burn out.

2.Sometime you can reuse (school have identical topics) or repurpose essays (edit them to personalize).

Start with Pitt - they open early and give rolling decisions - so you’ll have your answer soon.

Then figure out - who is most important. Line up the dates so you don’t miss a deadline - but focus on the important.

And some schools - like UMN - will send you an “easy” app- so you can common app or use their Golden App - i think they called it.

There’s lots of gaming/gimmeckry out there including from top schools - Chicago, Northeastern, BU, WUSTL, etc - making you feel like they want you - they just want your app so they can reject you and lower their acceptance rate. You are solid - maybe they won’t reject :slight_smile:

But have a plan - do the easy first - and then know your deadlines.

Only you know what’s too many for you.

But in the end, you’re only going to one - and to me, it already feels like Pitt :slight_smile:

But that’s why I say UMN, Charleston, etc - they are urban and you clearly like urban. To me, BU is a waste of time - so i’d have it less priority, etc - you need to ED to get in and for those who get in RD, you need big merit. That’s a near zero likelihood. Getting in at $90K is no better than a rejection - so do it if you must, but after you do the realistic ones.

OK - thanks.

PM me if you need me so i don’t get in trouble for over posting.

Thanks

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I spend a lot of my free time doing college searches and lists but am still in the learning phase. My budget is a little flexible and there is enough in the budget that I don’t have to look for super low cost: I will likely end up at UPitt since it is inexpensive as in state and it is a good school. I recognize that undergrad doesn’t really matter in the sense that I will be receiving nearly the same education anywhere (anywhere that was mentioned) however, if I get into a really good school that I like a lot that is a little more pricey like BC or Vanderbilt I would consider them esp if I can get merit scholarships.

Ok thanks! I am going to start working on my common app essays this year in my AP Lang class since my teacher built it into the curriculum after the AP Exams. Thank you for the pointers and suggestions. I have a spreadsheet of dates and colleges that is sorted and stuff so I am pretty ahead in planning I believe. I think around 10 is a good number for applications. Thanks for your time

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Yes my parents also said that I shouldn’t major in bio since it cuts off other options if i decide I dont want to do med. I think public health looks interesting but my experience at this upcoming summer program will help me decide on it i think

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Some of the schools on your list do not offer merit scholarships and cost more than your price limit.

Getting merit scholarships typically means targeting schools which (a) offer large enough merit scholarships, and (b) where you are in the upper range of their admitted students. Schools which are reach for admission only purposes are much less likely to be schools which fulfill (b).

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So do I! :laughing:

What if other options came in at the same price or lower than Pitt? So not necessarily their sticker prices, but the price they give you? Are there any non-low-probability schools that would interest you if you?

This aggregator lists the percentage of students receiving merit aid at a number of popular colleges and what the average merit aid package is. Please note that aggregators can make errors and that it’s always best to confirm with the school’s Common Data Set (section H2, also the location you would look if a school is not listed in the aggregator):

Additionally, a number of schools will ask for academic stats in the Net Price Calculator. If they do so, they will generally provide the minimum amount of merit aid you might expect if you were to apply.

Moreover, some schools will also have scholarship tables on their webpages and will just flat out indicate what kind of merit aid you would receive.

In terms of what you’re learning in your classes, you are correct. But in terms of what your experience is like, that is different. Several people on the forum will say that happy students are better students, and that’s true. So even though Pitt and PSU are both great schools, some people might be much happier at one than the other. It’s not that there’s anything wrong with either school, but one’s a better fit for that person. And then there might be someone who prefers PSU: Erie/Behrend over either of those options, because they prefer a smaller school. So again, there’s nothing wrong/right about any of these decisions; it’s just a matter of what’s best for the individual student.

This would be my suggestion:

  1. Find at least one, and preferably two, schools that are extremely likely to accept you, be affordable, and that you would be happy to attend for four years. It sounds like you’ve got that already with PSU and Pitt. If you wanted to, you could be finished there.

  2. Think about your mental makeup in terms of rejection. How many/what percentage of rejections do you think you could handle while still maintaining a healthy self? Whatever that number/percentage is, that is the maximum number of schools in the Lower & Low probability buckets that I would select.

  3. Look at other colleges. If you don’t like them more than PSU or Pitt, don’t add them to the list. If you like a school better than PSU or Pitt, add them to the list, figuring out which bucket they would go in with respect to your chances for admission. Add as many as you want in the extremely likely/likely/toss-up buckets. If you end up filling the low/lower probability buckets to your personal maximum, then start thinking about which schools among those that you prefer if there are more that you want to add.

Additionally, while you’re adding schools, it may be good to throw a few outliers in there. Meaning, at this point in time, your have preferences for types A & B. But maybe by the spring of your senior year, you’ll evolve away from those and be more interested in schools like C or D. So if you prefer medium-large schools, maybe you have a small to medium school, or if you have all super-urban schools, perhaps you throw in some in the suburbs or a college town, etc.

But 10-12 schools is certainly enough to get you an array of schools from which to choose by the time you’re needing to send in your enrollment deposit.

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