As everyone else said, it isn’t really possible to give a meaningful answer to that sort of question.
In terms of actual data, the Common Data Set includes fields relevant to merit aid, and you can get some ideas from all that about how relatively attainable merit is at different colleges, and how relatively generous they are when they do award merit.
But that doesn’t tell you whether and how much you will get. Some colleges have auto merit where you can actually know. But outside of them, you can’t be sure what your offer will look like.
So people who “chase merit” might have to pick multiple promising colleges. They might well want to choose some which they think are more likely to offer merit, and others a bit less but still it is a reasonable possibility. Then sometimes they are either pleasantly or unpleasantly surprised. But hopefully they get some good offers to consider.
As a final suggestion, College Transitions has scraped some basic data from the CDS reports:
I would view this as only a starting point, for colleges of interest you should look up whatever they say about merit. But it can help you at least get a very rough, initial idea of some more promising colleges to investigate.
My S25 from MA with similar stats (SAT over 1500) just applied as a likely poli sci major & received the best financial aid from the following LACs: Bowdoin, Colby, Skidmore. For us, the financial aid at these schools exceeded the max merit aid at Connecticut College & GWU—these schools were also much better for us on NPCs than BC & Tufts. Obviously this will all depend on your family’s specific financial circumstances, but it might be worth running the NPCs at those liberal arts schools (also Wesleyan) & seeing if any are affordable for you.
I was pretty surprised Fordham was a safety from a financial point of view! Hopefully the NPC is accurate for the OP on that…Fordham can be tough to afford for many (even way back in the day when I attended, I worked THREE jobs simultaneously at one point - one work study and two off campus - AND took out loans to make ends meet. And this was with decent merit aid.)
Yes. Over the past ~5 consecutive graduating classes, we’ve had usually 1 person go to a T15. Given that I receive 1500+ on my SAT, I’ll have comparable stats to them. Not sure on ECs or awards though
I didn’t actually run the NPC for Tufts and Fordham. I kinda put them there just to have a greater diversity of schools to chance. Sorry if that was confusing.
1 of the recommenders doesn’t know me very well (the other recommender’s LoR should be fine; she is my advisor for the business club). Both of my recommenders also told me that they wouldn’t take a brag sheet (basically gave the whole “I’ll only write about what I’ve personally observed in class” speel).
Also, digressing a little, what is supposed to be in a good LoR? I’m centering my application around my passion for politics, so should my LoRs talk about that? Or is general adulation more relevant? Like for instance:
LoR 1: “This student is the best student I’ve ever seen. They are always inquisitive in class, [insert x, y, z examples], etc.”
LoR 2: “I know this student has a vested interest and genuine passion in [field]. They have done [insert x,y,z examples showing passion in said field]”
Should LoRs focus on showing the student’s passion, or the student’s overall excellence?
The LORs will focus on what the writer decides to emphasize.
You should make sure both know you - so give them a brag sheet/resume so they know you outside the classroom. Hopefully they will talk about your character and other traits.
You still haven’t answered the budget question - we are seeking an actual $ figure.
My family can afford $20,00 a year, as an example.
What is your #?
If the NPCs aren’t meeting it, you may need to broaden your list of schools.
Owning income producing property can lead to an inaccurate NPC in several ways, for example:
If the NPC doesn’t ask about rental properties from all sides (income, asset value, mortgage loan value), that can lead to erroneous COA estimates
Often, for tax purposes, owners can take many deductions for running a business with rental properties. And often, colleges will disallow these deductions, making income look larger than it may be. (AFAIK, not many NPCs ask this type of detail)
Hopefully some property owners will chime in with their direct experience.
Remember also that rental property has to be reported on FAFSA (while one’s primary home does not have to be reported on FAFSA.)
You might ask for a financial aid pre-read, especially if you think you are going to apply ED. Some, but not all schools will do financial aid pre-reads. Tell them you would like to apply but are concerned the NPC might not be accurate because of the rental property.