I do not think UM is likely. 40% in state admit rate v. a much lower OOS. I can’t imagine it is in her interest to submit SAT scores to them with her current score. I don’t think she would have a chance at all if it wasn’t for being in state. I have no idea what the in state numbers are, how they view applicants without a submitted score, whether she should submit her AP scores, and what else can improve her chances there. There is certainly no cut-off.
My preferred budget is to keep it close to the UM all in of 35, but there is some flexibility.