Why is Michigan likely?
I’m asking because is there something based on the GPA or rank that makes auto admit? Last year 70% submitted a test so I assume it gives an advantage and the 25th percentile was 1350. So either the SAT comes up a lot or you go TO - and I’m not saying it’s not likely as maybe there’s an in state bias - but it doesn’t feel likely.
Wisconsin should be an easier admit than Michigan but has a higher 25th percentile but lower participation. But instead of Wisconsin, you might look at ranked film school Wisconsin Milwaukee.
Vandy - not sure of the film interest - definitely TO. Is the film interest study or production? Vandy a reach.
MSU, GVSU, Kalamazoo (very different), Hope (religious), WMU are all safe and likely low cost.
You list is interesting and you have more than enough safeties.
Where would they be competitive at “strong” schools. Define strong - most flagships are strong.
And merit alone doesn’t matter - for example, FSU full pay or UF full pay are going to be cheaper than Colorado - with merit.
What you should really say is - I have a budget of X $$ - find me a school at that amount.
You might consider Miami Ohio because their merit is GPA based. U of Arizona is another. Ohio U would be another and strong in media arts. Right now the student would be $20K off at Arizona (an amount reduced from past years but still strong). Mizzou and Kansas are two others - that have strong merit.
If you go south, there’s a big film industry in Louisiana and LSU might fit.
As you have K on your list, other schools where you are likely to get merit are a plenty - from a Depauw to an Allegheny (has a film making minor) to a Muhlenberg to a Wooster to Juniata to - just many - you can go to US News top LACs, probably start at #50 down (excluding a few like Reed and Franklin and Marshall) - but look and see who has film and the curriculum that you want. It’s harder to find but not impossible suburban or urban LACs - seems that’s what’s common in the rest of your list (vs. rural) which many LACs (like Depauw) are. SUNY Geneseo would be a good choice for a larger LAC (and a solid cost public).
The school that attracts close to the most OOS if not the most on a volume basis is Alabama. Why? They buy kids in. If you can get the SAT up to 1360…or take the ACT and get a 30 - you’d get $24K off - so you’d be low to mid 20s all in. You have til May 1 - so keep on the back burner in case the scores really launch. To show you that you won’t be alone, there are over 400 Michiganders on campus and 1500 Illinioisans - in the undergrad ranks. You won’t have big merit at 1280…it’s just a low cost option if you go higher.
Lots of opportunities for your student out there- and you already have lots of schools on your list.
Tell us your budget - not that you want merit - and maybe we can narrow in on some more.
Best of luck.