I would leave UMD on the list. I think this student will get some merit to bring the cost down to budget. Although possible, I would not count on B/K because it’s harder as an OOS student and there are many similar students who apply (both in state and out).
Pitt should stay on the list, imo, as should Rutgers. Both locations have a lot to offer.
You could add a SUNY if you want: Binghamton, Buffalo (UB). UB is very big but honors would create a smaller feel.
I would use the NPCs for the schools on your list that do not give merit.
Lastly, I would strongly consider your state schools.