Are you sure you want Rutgers?
The campus is split so the set up may not be the best, especially for someone who’s not from around NJ and who’ll be on campus 24/7. I’d replace it with one of the many equivalent flagships from VTech to UMass to UDel to Pitt or Penn State.
I agree with your estimates for UCD; NYU, low reach to NYU due to acceptance rate mitigated by being full pay so, 60/40-70/30 and CAS Anthropology. UIUC and UWisc are matches for Anthropology too.
If you want to switch majors, look into Case Western. Excellent location and you’re admitted to the whole university so no caps or competitive process to switch majors.