truly depends on the school - i didnt want my 11th grader to be dropped into a PA/PEA/D and have no honeymoon period. She did get into 4 schools as a junior (non repeat and actually on the young end of the class) and based on her grades so far - she has no issues excelling in AP level and other competitive classes.
College matriculations from PA/PE/D also involve a lot of athlete recruitment and other variables that you cannot see or control that will take precedence over academic performance (legacy, donor $$, institutional priorities etc)
Also depends on how rigorous the school you are leaving was and how the grading is handled (did the school have lots of extra credit ? retakes? had too many tests etc?
Looking at my jr today - i wonder how she would have done at PA/PE/D but i dont think the stress of that situation would have been worth it