I recommended avoiding “Brown” if the essay topic is open-ended (vs here). BTW, individual Brown AO’s have from time to time gone on record as to topics/themes they find boring and/or unenlightening. Anyone who wants to can research for particulars.
I can see we’re not going to shake the “game theorist” out of you – reminds me of me.
I will simply provide a few anecdotes which some might find useful in how they go about trying to predict their chances (i.e. stop trying to predict their chances ; ) Veterans of previous years can skip what follows – I’ve related these before.
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A local powerhouse public HS had forty applicants to Brown one season, and none were admitted. Meanwhile in the same year, Brown took two people from a nondescript HS relatively out in the middle of nowhere. Siblings, as it happened, and the first applicants from that HS I know of.
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A celebrated private magnet HS usually has 13-15 applicants and averages 2-3 admits. That’s very high, since this area has a lower admit rate than Brown’s aggregate number (and yet their guidance counselor still asks me ‘what went wrong?’). But some years it’s zero.
Admissions wants whomever they happen to want, with any apparent predictability or pattern not likely to withstand statistical scrutiny. Part of the reason is because they admit individuals in the context of an entering class’s composition. Someone who’s gets the nod one year wouldn’t make the cut another year, based on the overall applicant pool. “Musicophila” is published, and suddenly every other applicant [hyperbole] wants to do Neuro or Psych… for a few years, then it’s something else. In some years there’s been a relative shortage of applicants listing an intended Engin concentration (though not recently, AFAIK); other years a surplus.
FWIW from someone who’s been at this a long time, the closest thing there is to an accurate admission prediction (other than for Recruited athletes) is “If you are a really strong candidate you probably won’t get into Brown, and if you aren’t a strong candidate you definitely probably won’t get into Brown.” It was somewhat hard to get in way back when I did (14% admit rate), but has become increasingly crazy over the last several years.
That said,
Motion seconded!