chance me cmu, swat, uva, colgate

i am a hs sophomore and i would appreciate knowing my chances bc i need to know if i should change my college lists.
sat: 1460 730m/730wr/38r/18 essay
gpa unweighted: 4.0
class rank: 15/251 (top 10%)
ec’s:
girl scout gold and silver award (equivalent of eagle scout)
key club
hundreds of hours volunteering at local SPCA
i am also currently writing a book about the nature of human morality

i know my ec’s are kinda weak and my scores are on the lower end of the average for my schools, but i’d still like to know what you all think
intended major: astrophysics/minor in peace and conflict studies

forgot to mention: i also attend one of my state’s top governor’s schools for math/science for half the day, i got one of only two spots available for my class

Academically, definitely on the right track for these schools. As you noted, maybe work on your ECs. If you can align them with what you want to study, even better. Get the Cal Newport book How to Be a High School Superstar: A Revolutionary Plan to Get into College by Standing Out (Without Burning Out). It’ll help for that. Good luck!

So, my question was: why these 4 radically different colleges? From your other threads I see that it is because you have set out a very specific set of major and minors and these colleges have them. IMO that is not the best metric.

First, you say that you are absolutely set on astrophysics- which is great! two things though: first, it means that grad school is in your future, so you might want to consider undergrad and grad as a whole- not necessarily to stay in one place, but balancing the relative strengths. For example, for undergrad consider choosing a place that is strong in your minor interests, but good enough in your major interests to prepare you well for grad school- and there are a LOT of colleges and unis with strong astrophysics majors that will do that*. Second, it is not completely impossible that you will change your focus over the next 4 years- says the mother of a former astrophysics now physics major and aunt of a former astrophysics now a nano-biotechnology grad student. This happens when more advanced classes introduce new areas, summer research experiences turn into serious research interests, etc.

Second, minor choices change even more than majors do. Having a ‘minor’ in something is pretty much meaningless once you leave college- esp once you are in a PhD program for something else. A ‘minor’ will have specific classes you have to take- which may or may not be the ones you want to take. A school with very few requirements (eg Brown, Vassar, etc), leaves you room to simply take the courses that are interesting/relevant, and might actually get you closer to your objectives for specializing in those subjects.

Third, you note in other posts that you are autistic and have a couple mental health challenges. Finding a campus environment that suits you- where you feel comfortable and confident- is an important part of a successful college career. No minor is going to compensate for a campus environment that doesn’t work for you.

You have strong stats and are taking a rigorous courseload, so just keep working on that. Instead of putting energy into repeated ‘chance me’ threads, invest your time in ECs that genuinely mean something to you, and in figuring out what college characteristics will work best for you - then research those options. For example, if you want a very structured curriculum look at UChicago, Columbia, Notre Dame, the Service Academies, etc. And unless cost is not a concern at all, don’t forget to check the NPCs!

*a sampler of the strong astrophysics programs includes:

Public: Arizona (U & State), UC (B, LA, SB, SD), UIUC, UMdCP, UMaA, Mi (U & State), NC (U & State), Ohio (U & State), Penn State, UT-A, VA (U & Tech), WA (U & State)

Private: Barnard & Columbia, BU, CalTech, CMU, Case Western, UChicago, Colgate, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Howard, , JHU, , MIT, NW, UPenn, Pomona, Princeton, RPI, Rice, Rochester, Smith, Stanford, Swarthmore, Tufts, Vanderbilt, Vassar, Wellesley, Wesleyan, Yale