You’re a reach for your EDs in the sense that everyone is a reach at those institutions. You will be very competitive RD or ED at any of these schools. From a statistical standpoint, WashU is probably your best ED chance. Your GPA and ACT are above the enrolled median and first Gen college is a hook there as well. They have the highest ED acceptance rate and probably the fewest alumni/athlete/children of faculty hooks in their ED pool. Those applicants will overstate acceptance rates for people who don’t fall in those buckets. So in that sense, they’re probably the least overstated (less athlete pref than D1 and lower legacy admin).
Beyond that, Vandy is probably next and possibly higher than WashU. Their ED acceptance rates are a bit lower, but their acceptance decisions tend to be less random and more GPA/test score driven based upon nearly every scatter I’ve seen. And since you’re above the median enrolled in both of those metrics, that bodes well for you.
And just to repeat what others have said: if the plan is med school, you need to consider the 8-year cost and whether it is worth it. You can get a good education/med school prep at a lot of schools and med admissions is not prestige based. At the same time, some schools recognize the rigor at X will lead to lower GPAs and adjust accordingly.
Personally I wouldn’t ED unless:
- you’re absolutely in love with a school. Then ED (Dartmouth??)
- you’re absolutely convinced this type of environment is what you want, then ED to the school that gives you the best chance of admission (WashU??)
Purely from a med admissions perspective, 2 isn’t a valid reason, but there are some additional benefits to this type of setting if that is important to you.