Chance me for +15 colleges '22


  • US Citizen
  • NY private school
  • Woman, not sharing race

Intend Majors

  • listed with colleges

Grades and test scores:

  • 33 ACT
  • Approximately 3.7 UW GPA 9th-11th grade (school doesn’t report GPA, just transcript)
  • 1 AP junior year (Chem) 3 APs senior year (Stats, Psych, Music Theory)
  • 1st quarter senior year quarter grades (only to ED and EA):
    A in 2 choir classes, physics
    A- in AP Music theory, AP stats, Calculus
    B+ in English
    B- in AP Psych
    (hoping to get an A- in English and a B+ in AP Psych by the time RD/ED2 is submitted)


  • competitive rock climber (9-12)
  • volunteering with paraclimbers (9-12)
  • sleep away camp CIT (11)
  • peer leader (12th grade) (selected by administration to have a mentor group for 9th graders)
  • Multi ethnic cultural awareness group member and leader/facilitator (9-12)
  • choir (9-12) (participated in NYSSMA festival 9th and 11th grade and have high scores on solos)


  • very good

ED (will see quarter grades, already submitted):

  • Northwestern SESP (legacy): human development/learning and organizational change

EA (will see quarter grades, already submitted):

  • UMich LSA: organizational studies/music
    -UNC Chapel Hill: (everyone is admitted undecided but I put leading and organizational change and human development)
  • University of Wisconsin School of Human Ecology: human devlelopment
  • CU Boulder Leeds school of business: management
  • Macalester: undecided

RD/ED2 (won’t see senior year quarter grades):
-Cornell college of human ecology (in state): human development
-Amherst: undecided (maybe music or statistics)
-WUSTL: music
-Haverford: undecided (maybe music or statistics)
-Colby: undecided (maybe music or statistics)
-Bates: undecided (maybe music or statistics)
-University of Rochester: undecided
-Tufts: undecided
-Wesleyan: undecided

Thank you guys! If anyone has any questions, lmk!

A NYC Private HS student is likely to get a much better handle on chances from your college advisor, Naviance and College consultant (if employed) than on this website.

That said, Amherst, WUSTL and UMich look kind of reachy.

Haverford, Colby, Bates UoR Tufts and Wesleyan - would expect you to get in to one or more.

Personally, don’t know enough about the others to comment.

Best of luck.

Again, I’m an amateur - as we all are - but since you asked for chanceme.

Northwestern - no - while you have legacy, I don’t see rigor. That said, if you tell me your school only offers 4 or 5 APs, that’s different. But assuming they offer a fair share and you too just four (and nothing wrong with that) - then I don’t see how you can get in.

The other thing I have is - you’re in a private school - and the school should be able to give you a sense vs. other graduates in the past. So perhaps I’m being overly downtrodden. For example, you may be at an elite school that sends 50% of kids to Top 30 schools.

But I’ll continue.

Michigan - unlikely.

UNC - very difficult OOS - so no.

Wisconsin - yes

CU - yes

Mac - Likely

Cornell - no

Amherst - no

WUSTL - no

Haverford - maybe

Colby - no

Bates - possibly - if you had ED for sure. not sure if you like it enough to be your ED2.

Rochester - 50/50 - likely no if your answer to rigor is as I think.

Tufts - no

Wesleyan - 60/40 yes

So one question I’d have and wouldn’t be comfortable answering - do the music programs require audition and perhaps that changes things.

Good luck to you.

If your dad or grandfather’s first name is Morton (Morty), then Northwestern SESP looks like a sure thing.

Even though you list membership in a “multi ethnic cultural awareness group”, you choose not to share your race. This makes guessing even more difficult for posters / readers.

Is financial aid / affordability an issue ?

Since I view Northwestern University’s SESP as the best LAC-like environment in the nation, I hope that you are admitted.

As a general observation, I think that you have an odd mix of schools. At the risk of incurring the wrath of certain posters, I truthfully do not understand how one targeting Northwestern, Cornell, WashUStL, UNC, Michigan, Wisconsin, CU-Boulder, Tufts, Wesleyan, Rochester, Macalester, Haverford, & Amherst would be content with & at the remaining two small, fairly rural, options.


Thank you! I forgot to add I have legacy at WUSTL as well but I think it’ll still be a reach. My college advisor said that Haverford/Tufts/Wesleyan would be targets if ED2. I think I always had high hopes for UMich but may not be counting on it at this point… but the application is in so we may as well just wait and see. Thank you again for your insight.

I completely agree my list is a really weird mix and joke about it with everyone. When I was younger, I wanted more liberal arts and this past summer, decided I wanted to apply to specific programs. However, I could still see a liberal arts college working for me, and I was told by my college advisor I have a better chance of getting into a liberal arts college vs a university of the same selectivity because they value EC’s, essays, and demonstrated interest more than universities (as well as having less applicants).

The reason why I went race blind is because I’m mixed race (White and Asian, but white-passing and have a white last name) and my mom did not want me put in the Asian bucket. My mom’s choice, not mine.

I’m fortunate enough that financial aid won’t be an issue.

I am not related to Morty LOL.

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Yeah, I see your point about Northwestern. During junior year, I was told I didn’t have enough rigor, but over the summer, when we discussed legacy and the program I’m applying for, my college advisor said it was a greater chance. In terms of my school, I probably have slightly less rigor compared to others (many people took 2 APs junior year and may be taking 4 now vs 3) but don’t think I’m super behind. I just don’t know if it’s really a chance now with the B-. But the application is in so who knows and I’m trying to look ahead.

The music programs I indicated interest in don’t have auditions. I was considering auditioning for Northwestern’s combined BFa program in addition to SESP, but was a little too behind in the search process to put together a portfolio.

In terms of past graduates, many don’t go to liberal arts colleges, so I’m not sure. I have a close friend who graduated last year with similar stats who is currently at Rochester. Michigan typically takes kids with less rigor from my school, but I may be chanced out now because of the B- in my first quarter grades.

Glad to hear that some of the smaller schools are possibilities and also happy to hear that Wisconsin is still a decent chance. Thank you so much!

Agree with the above that your HS GC and Naviance/Scoir are your best guides, especially if you attend a top private NY HS…is that the case? You must have a sense for your class rank, no?

All in all this is a reachy list given your rigor and ECs…how would you say your rigor compares to your classmates? On your other thread you said none of your first and second year classes were honors, but that’s normal at your school. For the top students in your school, what proportion of classes during their first 3 years of HS were honors/APs?

Regarding your list, I agree it’s all over the place with large publics, medium privates, a bunch of LACs, and many different targeted majors. With that said, Boulder is highly likely, and Wisconsin a target, after that it’s tough to guesstimate chances. Which teachers wrote your LoRs?

Edited to add: I don’t necessarily agree with your counselor’s statements about LACs relative to non-LACs. Also, I encourage you to put Asian on your LAC applications where Asians are underrepresented (which is the case at many LACs). Do some research to figure that out for each school, so that can guide you when completing your apps.

If you prefer a LAC stick to it. Specialize in grad school. I’m surprised Grinnell isn’t on your list.

You probably would be in the lower half or even lower quarter of applicants at WUSTL or Cornell. Why do that to yourself?

This all might be moot if you get in to Northwestern.

Full pay might give you a bump.

I’d try to keep your apps under 10. If money isn’t an issue be picky. Drill down into each school, their programs, their graduation requirements and culture. You’ll knock off a few that way. Good luck.

This seems like a reachy list to me. Do you have a true safety school?


Many of these schools look like reaches to me given your gpa/rigor. However, since you attend a private school you might have a better chance than someone with similar stats from a public school. I think Cornell, Tufts, Amherst, UNC Chapel Hill are probably all “no’s” even coming from a top private school. I think Wisconsin, CU Boulder, Bates & UofR are probably a “yes”. The others are a toss up. If you weren’t a legacy at Northwestern I’d say no, but you have a chance. Best of luck!!

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Got it, thank you. Yeah the universities were more on there so I could specialize early and have the choice of grad school instead of it being a “must”. Yeah it may be smart to cut down (I wasn’t even really into Tufts or Wesleyan but my parents made me stick with them), thank you for your insight!

I was thinking CU Boulder would be a true safety and was also thinking Wisconsin would be a safety (although I’m not sure if that’s true)

Thank you! Yeah, I’m very grateful for the advantages of private school because otherwise Michigan and Colby would probably be off the table. I may consider pulling Tufts and Amherst because it may not be worth the effort if they’re most likely going to be a no. Thank you so much for your insight :slight_smile:

I missed Boulder on your list. Yes, that should be a safety if it’s affordable. WI I would call more of a match than a safety for an OOS applicant.


Yeah my GC has been very helpful, but I’ve just been panicking with quarter grades lately and my parents didn’t want me to consult her yet and our Naviance with past admitted students is hidden. My school has no class rank.

I would say that the more competitive kids in my class did 2 APs junior year and are in 3-5 this year (however, some kids in my grade did 5 last year). The class before us had a lot less rigor, with most kids only doing 1-2 APs senior year. Many kids did no honors 9th and 10th.

Thank you for your insight on Boulder and Wisconsin! I had an 11th grade history, 11th grade math math, and music theory/choir teacher (who I’ve had for all 4 years of HS and is also head of the music dept) write my LoRs (very close with all 3 of them).

That comment is probably true about the LACs. Maybe the reason she suggested that was because less people in my grade want LACs. And thank you for the suggestion about putting race in LAC apps, will consult my parents about that.

Thank you for all of your help!

thank you!

My guesses are based mainly on your GPA and ACT and, in the cases of Northwestern and Wash U, sprinkled with a bit of legacy fairy dust. hehe

Essays, LORs, ECs, and schools’ assessment of your HS rigor can help or hinder, of course:

Amherst RD: Reach
Cornell RD: Reach
Northwestern ED: Reach/low reach
Colby RD: Reach/low reach
Tufts RD: Reach/low reach
UNC OOS EA: Reach/low reach
UMich OOS EA: Reach/Low reach
Haverford RD: Low reach
Wes RD: High match
Bates RD: High match
Mac EA: High match/match
U of Rochester RD: High match/match
UW OOS EA: High match/match
CU EA: Low match

How I figure this:
I compare the average test scores and GPAs of admitted students to your stats, and take the admit % into account, to roughly figure your chances at each school. So if your stats are average for that school, and the school has a 20% admit rate, to me that makes it a low reach for you. I didn’t have time to verify all the numbers, so some of these are estimates.

So this is my “chance” table/definitions:
High reach: <5% chance
Reach: 5-15%
Low reach: 15-25%
High match: 25-40%
Match: 40-60% (coin flip)
Low match: 60-99%
Safety: Virtually a sure thing…


Well, if you really like Tufts and Amherst and you have the time to do a really good job on the supplemental essays it is probably still worth applying - probably a “no” based on some stranger’s input isn’t a definite “no”. You don’t have zero chance, those are just less likely than the others based on my experience. If you don’t really love them, though, maybe you are better off not applying as it is time consuming. It’s very hard for me to judge your chances because you are coming from private school - my son has a similar unweighted gpa (3.65), # of APs and rigor but wouldn’t have chance at most of these schools coming from a good public school. He is a legacy at one of the LACs you are interested in, but isn’t applying since it’s too small for him. You are a very good candidate - it’s just that things are so crazy competitive these days. It may be a moot point if Northwestern works out and I hope it does!


I think you have a good chance ED at Northwestern. They love ED as much as any university. You are a legacy. Your grades and ACT are acceptable. I think you have a solid 50/50 shot at Northwestern.

You will get into U Colorado … no question about it. It is a really nice campus and great college town.

It is extremely likely you will also get into U Wisconsin … also a great campus and college town.

I think Michigan and UNC (OOS is tough at both obviously, especially UNC) are unlikely.

Cornell in state, Haverford, Tufts, and WashU legacy … maybe … 20% chance at each

Amherst, Colby and Bates … probably no

Rochester, Macalester and Wesleyan … probably yes

Good luck! It’s a good list … I hope you end up with some great options.