This has changed in the past few years. CMC pulled out of the joint Keck Science department, which is now just Scripps+Pitzer, and created their own Kravis Department of Integrated Sciences. The resulting Integrated Science major, which “is currently structured around three global societal and scientific challenges: Health, Brain, and Planet,” does not seem like a fit for a student who wants a true physics major, much less physics-and-maybe-engineering. That said, off-campus majors based at other consortium schools are pretty common at the 5C’s (although Mudd engineering isn’t available to students at the other 4 schools other than as a 3:2)… I suspect that a CMC kid who discovered they truly wanted physics could access a physics major that way. But I agree that it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to choose CMC for these interests. It was never a place that drew a lot of physical-sciences kids but it seems even less accommodating of such interests now than before CMC pulled out of Keck. (Not that OP is even considering, but just to close that loop for anyone else reading.)
As for Pomona being within reach, I didn’t say the student shouldn’t apply, and I hope you guys are right that there’s a chance. If we’d had this conversation in June, I would’ve recommended applying to the POP fly-in, which would have helped to gauge Pomona’s interest in the student and vice versa, and would have put the student on Pomona’s radar. At this point, I feel like a comparable applicant who went through that process has a real advantage over the OP applying “cold.” There’s still a chance, but that process is how the school identifies a lot of the FGLI students that they ultimately admit. At any rate, I think we all agree that it’s a long shot, but nobody’s saying it isn’t worth taking that shot. I can see foregoing the engineering option for a school of Pomona’s caliber (as with Reed), whereas I feel less sure that it would make sense to choose a school like Oxy over someplace like USF or USD with an engineering option. (Trinity in San Antonio could really hit the sweet spot for this student IMO - strong physics & engineering, need-blind domestic admissions, full-need-met aid, lovely setting… but obviously TX isn’t on the table here… the CA private options that give enough aid but aren’t Stanford-level reachy are somewhat limited.)
OP, have you run the NPC for USC? It may not be generous enough but it doesn’t hurt to check.
p.s. Engineering-wise, it’s worth noting that non-Mudd students can take Mudd’s E4 Intro to Engineering Design class, followed by the Human-Centered Design classes offered by The Hive… so that could be an enhancement to a Pomona or Scripps physics major.