Fellow Class of 2019 member here! I don’t know if you forgot about this but I’d highly recommend taking the SAT Math and Science tests as many OOS students will have already taken these when applying (strive for a 780+ atleast on Math II and 700+ on any science one). I was an in-state applicant so I can’t judge your probability based on personal experience but I’d say being instate was a huge part for me being accepted since I was barely top 10% and my GPA was considered average (4.2W and 31/306) but I know for a fact that my essays helped a TON because I didn’t have many extracirriculars either (marching band, various academic/honor clubs, and volunteering was all). I think you should focus heavily on whatever essay topics you choose. Make them stand out and be from your heart. It’s fine to let others review your essays but don’t let them mingle too much. Overall, as @fcallicotte said, no one can judge your probability of being accepted so don’t take anyone’s predictions seriously even if they think you have a 100% chance of getting admitted. All I can say is that you have a very outstanding range of extracirriculars, excellent academic standing, and nice test scores as an OOS. For now uptil the deadline, make sure you do well the first semester of HS, get good SAT II scores, brainstorm and work on those essays, and hope for the best!