Why not add your in-state flagship U as an additional safety? It will be your cheapest option by far, preserves money for other uses, like law school.
She really is an excellent candidate. I think that she has a chance at Wash U, maybe Rice. I think that your matches are more likelies. She sounds as if she’s headed towards law school, so can major in anything, anywhere. The most important thing for law school acceptance is going to be high GPA and high LSATs, both of which sound very possible for her anywhere she goes, but if the school is less competitive, she could get a 4.0, be summa cum laude.
You want her to stay relatively close to home? Should she add Carleton? U Mich? UIUC (Illinois)? If you want merit, add the automatic merit schools, like Alabama, Arizona. If you want name schools that she has a fair shot at, I would say she has a chance anywhere with a 10% acceptance rate or higher. Certain state U schools will give her merit bringing tuition close to in state for you. And 3rd tier LACs would likely give her substantial merit.