Chance me for junior with decent stats [3.98 GPA, 36 ACT] but nervous about impossible admit rates

I think this shows that you know your daughter well and realize the psychological toll that a number of rejections can have. If she has a clear first choice, and your family is willing and able to afford all the schools on her list, then going ED sounds like a smart move.

Throwing an app at U. of Iowa early might also have a very reassuring effect, if she would be happy to attend there. I think I’ve heard of admissions responses coming back within a matter of hours. The psychological impact of having an admit can be very soothing and powerful.

There’s no need to have an extensive list of schools to apply to. If she’d be happy at all of the schools above, then there’s no need to add on schools.

If ED doesn’t go as hoped (assuming she EDs), then a school that your family may want to consider as a “match” that would have a higher percentage of academically similar peers is and where I suspect your daughter’s odds might be greater than 50% are:

Brandeis (MA): About 3600 undergrads and there are 6-8 flights/day from Minneapolis
St. Olaf (MN): About 3k undergrads and less than an hour from Minneapolis

You could also think about
Loyola Marymount (CA): 8-9 direct flights/day
U. of Denver (CO): About 5900 undergrads with 14-21 direct flights/day

All 4 of those (plus Creighton and Marquette) offer college Mock Trial and Speech & Debate.

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