I think that U. of Iowa is a safety (I’m pretty sure it’s fully stats based and she could run the calculator before applying to confirm). Loyola Chicago is a likely…probably so likely that I’d even consider putting it in the safety bucket.
She definitely has a realistic shot at any of her reaches. Even if she is 2x as likely to be accepted as other applicants, though, she’d still have less than a 20% chance of admittance…so 80% chance of a non-admittance. But I would certainly have her apply and would not be surprised at all if she were to be accepted to any of her reach schools.
If she thinks they’re too small, then I would look for different safeties. It appears she has a definite preference for colleges in cities, preferably in middle America. Has your family considered any of these all of which I would consider likelies that are so likely, they’re probably in the safety bucket.
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Bradley (IL): About 4300 undergrads; 59% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% of classes have more than 50 students.
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Butler (IN): About 4500 undergrads; 45% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 4% of classes have more than 50 students.
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Calvin (MI): About 3100 undergrads; 37.4% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 1.2% have more than 50. You would want to make sure any school is a good fit, but this school is probably more of a fit school than the others on this list.
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Creighton (NE): About 4500 undergrads; 43% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 4% of classes have more than 50 students.
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Marquette (WI): About 7700 undergrads; 49% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 9% of classes have more than 50 students.
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Saint Louis (MO): About 7800 undergrads; 39.6% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 7.4% have more than 50 students.
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U. of Dayton (OH): About 8600 undergrads; 38% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% of classes have more than 50 students.
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Xavier (OH): About 5100 undergrads; 42.9% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 1% have more than 50.
Check the schools’ common data sets, because their classes between 20-40 might mostly be in the 20s or they could be more in the 40s (and a class with 25 feels very different than a class of 45, at least to me). If those don’t feel “liberal arts college”-y enough here are two other possibilities:
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Truman State (MO): Missouri’s liberal arts college has about 3900 undergrads and 63% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% have more than 50. The school, though in a town, is in a remote location.
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Hope (MI): Has about 3100 undergrads; 60.2% of classes have fewer than 20 students and 2% have 50 or more. Holland is not remote and is considered a charming town, but it’s not a major metro.