This!!! You are spot on. If you go TO and get rejected, you’ll say I should have submitted.
If you submit and get rejected, you’ll think you should have gone TO.
If you are rejected, you’ll never know why. And it’likely wouldn’t be test related but you’ll never know.
It’s a reach school. Don’t fall in love with any school. And love those that love you. @collegegreen is spot on.