Chance me for UC Merced?

UC GPA: 3.36
Weighted high school GPA: 3.63
SAT: 1250
ACT: 28

AP Tests Taken:
-Psychology (4)
-English Language (3)
-World History (4)
-Environmental Science (2)

Senior Year Schedule:
-AP Statistics
-Graphic Arts 1
-AP Microeconomics/U.S. Government and Politics
-Spanish 3
-AP English Literature
-Journalism 4

Major Awards:
-Los Angeles County Academic Decathlon, 2 silver, 2 bronze medals junior year
-4 medals senior year but wasn’t able to put this in my application
-National Journalism Education Association Conference, won 3rd place in poetry writing
-AP Scholar
-Principal’s Honor Roll (3.8+ GPA) for 2 semesters
-Honor Roll (3.25-3.79 GPA) for 2 semesters

-School newspaper opinions editor (9th, 10th grade), soundcheck/opinions editor (11th grade), editor-in-chief, opinions, soundcheck editor (12th grade)
-Protect Animal Welfare club PR officer (11 grade)
-Link Crew club: help transition of freshmen into high school (11th grade)
-Class council, student government promotion class unity and spirit (9-11th grade)
-Global Exchange Organization, “club that promotes cultural and global awareness, exploring nature, appreciation of foreign and classical cinema” -from my application (9th-12th grade)

I had pretty strong essays, both of my college advisors and AP Lit teacher really liked them and said they were interesting and gave a lot of insight about me.

UC Merced is my top choice college and my anxiety waiting for my decision is getting worse and worse. Can anyone please give me an idea as to what kind of decision I should be expecting?

All I can do is quote UC statistical data based on your stats. Your EC’s look very good and if your essays are as good as you claim, you have a decent chance for an acceptance but definitely not a guarantee. GPA below the 25th percentile while SAT and ACT are well within range or higher. Best of luck.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.00-3.39 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCM: 45%

2018 UC capped weighted GPA averages:
UCM: 3.71

2018 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCM: 1020-1280

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT:
UCM: 19-26