Chance me for UCSB!

I know this may be slightly useless considering decisions are coming out within the next month, I would still appreciate it if any of you would chance me for UCSB. I am currently a senior in high school with a 4.12 weighted GPA and a 3.8 weighted capped GPA. I had very good grades freshman and sophomore year (a 4.4 and a 4.6), however, due to family issues and having to go to court, my grades suffered greatly junior year. I did write about this story in one of my essays and the additional comments section where I clearly explained with prevented me from being able to work on school.
Some of my activities include Model United Nations, Varsity Soccer, Club Soccer, a job, NHS, coaching a youth soccer team, and small volunteer ecs.
In my essays, I wrote about my family issues and how I recovered from them, Model United Nations, Dealing with my ADHD diagnosis, and expressing my creative side through cinematography.
I am also in-state but not local and applied as a Poli-Sci major.
If anyone could let me know what my chances are for UCSB that would be great. Fyi: I also applied to UCSD, Cal Poly Slo, SDSU, CSULB (accepted), and CSUF (accepted).

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Hey!! I’m also a high school senior so this is completely my opinion so please take it with a grain of salt! I think you have a solid chance (maybe 40/60 or 50/50) of getting in, especially since you seem to have a very good reason for your grades. Your extracurriculars seem pretty good and as long as the rest of the essays you wrote are thoughtful, I’m sure you’ll be a great candidate for UCSB. Good luck and keep up the good work <3

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Here is the UC admit rate for 2021:
2021 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:

UCB: 13%

UCLA: 4%

UCSD: 25%

UCSB: 25%

UCD: 44%

UCI: 16%

UCSC: 79%

UCR: 93%

UCM: 98%

UCSB would be a Reach school however, you have a valid reason for GPA decline which can be a positive in your application review. You have some good school acceptances so far and any of the other schools including UCSB would be icing on the cake.

Remember where you go for Undergrad will not define you, it is what you do with the opportunities you are given that will make you successful.

I would look at this data link on Admission by Source School. You can select UCSB and select your high school to see how many were admitted from your school last year as well as what was the average GPA. That might give you an idea of how competitive is your case, but as others said admission is more than just GPA.

with a capped GPA around 3.8, I’d say UCSB is pretty unlikely to admit you. Same is true for UCSD. SLO is a little different because they include Freshman grades - so, that’s probably a coin toss - I’d call SDSU 60/40 in your favor.

You have a couple of sold options already, Good luck with the rest!