You strike me as a potentially competitive applicant for Yale. This really just means it is worth applying, at least if you check out their Net Price Calculator and they would provide enough aid.
As others are saying, it is impossible to give you a specific chance beyond that. But realistically, it is hard for it to actually be likely to be admitted to a place like Yale (barring being something like a recruited athlete). So you would want a robust list of other colleges, including colleges where you would be very likely to be admitted, and colleges where you are least middling likely to be admitted.
Then in my experience, Physics kids who like Yale might find a variety of different colleges interesting as well. That would depend on what pointed you to Yale in the first place.
Brown would definitely be one popular overlap school. Michigan maybe less so, and Virginia Tech even less so than that. Not that these are impossible overlaps, they are just not very obvious ones to me.
So if you liked, you could tell us more about what you are really looking for in a college experience, academically and non-academically, and we could give you more suggestions to consider.