In any case, I think that, as a sophomore, it is too early to even think of calculating your chances, There are many semesters between now and application season in your Senior year.
Keep on doing well in classes and in your ECs, and you will be competitive or even very competitive, though, as an unhooked applicant it will always be a reach. Also, do not “lock” yourself into any college or any major. By the time you are a Senior, you do not know what you will want from a college or which major you will want to choose.
Having a “dream” college is a recipe for disappointment and heartbreak, especially if that college is one to which you are not likely to be accepted. Furthermore, exactly how can you actually “dream” of attending a college, when you cannot really conceive what it would be like to attend Wharton. You have little understanding as to what attending college is like, what lectures and discussions are like, what interacting with fellow students will be like, or, in fact, much anything at all in college life.
Like most kids your age, the realistic part of your “dream” probably ends with getting an acceptance letter to Wharton or another “prestigious” college.
It is good to do your best, and it is good to plan ahead, and have, as part of that plan, “I will attend the best college for my career plans” as an option. However, having, as your high school plan “I will take classes have ECs, and do everything in my power to be accepted to Wharton, and I have no real idea what happens after that” is unhealthy, to say the least.
As a sophomore you now really see yourself in business as your career? Great, keep on taking classes which focus on that (as well as some classes which provide you with a deeper perspective in life), engage in ECs which interest you, some which may be in the fields of your interest, and try to do your very best. When it comes time to start selecting colleges, first figure out what type of college is the best fit, and what your parents can afford. Then see which colleges are of this type and offer your preferred major. One of this may very well be Wharton, in which case apply.
However, your choice of colleges to which to apply should be determined by what you want and need from a college. Your high school years should help you figure out what you want and need from a college. Basically - you should do your best in high school, and let your highschool years inform your college choice.
As it is, you are looking at it backwards, and trying to let your uninformed college choice determine your high school years. As I wrote, that is a recipe for many unhappy years, before, after, and during college.
College is a stage in life. It is part of your path to whatever you would like to do in life. It is not a life goal.
Imagine being about to go to a trip around the world, and focusing only on which vehicle will take you to the airport.