Chance Me/Match Me: Junior, CA resident, 3.94uw [3.89/4.32/4.32 UC GPA], History/PolySci [<$24k]

Chance Me / Match Me
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I’d appreciate any feedback on which schools should be considered for my 11th grade child.

Demographics

  • US domestic citizen
  • California
  • Large suburban public high school
  • Other special factors: none

Cost Constraints / Budget

  • $24k/yr max (this includes federal student loans) (SAI 5500)

Intended Major(s)

  • History or Political Science

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.94
  • Weighted HS GPA: 4.23/5.0 (accelerated courses are highest rigor for the course sequence but not weighted)
  • UC Capped GPA: 4.34
  • Class Rank: Top 4%
  • ACT Score: 28 composite (30 math, 24 science, 25 English, 33 reading); trying to figure out if it’s worth retaking for higher score or just to apply test optional.
  • AP test scores: human geography (5), world history (4), foreign language (5). Planning to take AP test for all AP courses signed up in 11th (including CS).

List your HS coursework

  • 9th grade - accelerated English, IM2 (math), accelerated Biology, AP Human Geography, Foreign Language, PE (required), performing arts

  • 10th grade - accelerated English, IM3, Chemistry honors, AP World History, Foreign Language, PE (required), performing arts

  • Summer before 11th grade - dual enrollment health class (required) from local community college

  • 11th grade - AP Lang, Precalc honors, Physics honors, APUSH, PLTW Computer Science Principles honors (will be taking AP computer science principles test next month), performing arts

  • 12th grade - AP Lit, AP Calc AB, AP Gov, AP Stats, performing arts (2 periods worth). Planning to take some kind of academic class outside of their high school because they will only be taking 4 academic classes through their high school.

  • English: 4 years highest rigor

  • Math: 4 years. 2nd highest rigor possible; there was an option to do IM3/Pre-Calc compacted class that they did not do. IM1 was taken in middle school & shows on h.s. transcript.

  • Social studies: 4 years highest rigor

  • Language other than English: 2 years of a same foreign language taken at the high school. Student has gotten an AP test score of 5 in a different foreign language (this language is not offered at the high school) that the student is fluent in. They also got 2 years worth of transfer credit for high school from the foreign language school.

  • Science: 3 years. Highest rigor for taking 1yr each of bio, chem, physics. But did not take 2nd yr of those classes, which would have been AP. Planning for no regular science classes in 12th. School does not allow taking AP bio, AP chem, AP physics without first taking a regular in sequence 1yr bio, chem, physics class prior.

  • Visual or performing arts: 4 years of the same performing arts. Teacher is requiring that students take 2 periods worth next year, if they want to continue in this performing arts.

  • Other academic courses: 1 year of computer science, 1 year of stats.

  • 8 AP classes, 4 honors classes, 3 accelerated (unweighted) by graduation. (School offers 14 AP courses, excluding AP visual/performing arts & foreign languages).

Awards
A few individual awards (given by the school team) for the performing arts and track&field.

Extracurriculars
(Include leadership, summer activities, competitions, volunteering, and work experience)

  • Performing arts team (9-12th) - although it’s a class in high school, it requires significant amount of time outside of class time year round.
  • Varsity Track&Field (9-12th) - captain of their section (11th). Qualifying for local invitationals.
  • A mostly social club in her school (9-12th) - co-founder & treasurer. Weekly meetings.
  • National History Day Project (11th) - submitted original research paper. Did not place.
  • Volunteer @ local elementary school (11th) - a few hours per week; assist the art teacher
  • Volunteer @ non-profit cultural center (11th) - maybe about 30hrs total
  • Foreign language school (1-10th) - 6-7hrs/wk; elected class representative in 9th & 10th grades.
  • Still trying to ramp up the extracurriculars, so we’re expecting additional activities that I think will be more impactful, but with the time remaining, will be limited.

Essays/LORs/Other
Have not started on these. LORs not expected to be anything spectacular. Counselor does not know student on any personal level.

Schools
The initial school list was made by considering child’s preferences and running the NPC last year for a few hundred colleges. I categorized them into overall acceptance rates, but data may be slightly outdated. We want to refine the list with your input.

  • Preferences - zero or low Greek participation (especially if a small school), not in these states (AK, OK, LA, MS, AL, FL, AR), no single gender schools, no schools <500 students. Prefer a school that allows student to be able to change majors easily, if needed.
  • Concerns - extracurriculars are weak, test scores not strong. I understand that most of the schools on this list are not need blind, but which schools are unfavorable for us due to being very need aware (will need need-based aid)??
  • Assured (100% chance of admission and affordability): our local CSU (guaranteed admission with GPA due to school district contract)
  • Acceptance rate (>50%) -
  • McDaniel College
  • Juniata College
  • Gustavus Adolphus College
  • Lawrence University
  • Beloit College
  • Acceptance rate (20-50%)
  • UCs
  • St. Olaf College
  • American University (I think this will be eliminated due to cost; seems like their NPC is inaccurate because they don’t consider home equity in their NPC, even though it’s actually considered in their fin aid calculations?).
  • Connecticut College
  • Oberlin College
  • Kenyon College
  • Macalester College
  • Case Western Reserve University
  • Acceptance rate (<20%)
  • UCs
  • Pitzer
  • Carleton College
  • Bates
  • Haverford College
  • Wesleyan
  • Georgetown University
  • Hamilton
  • WashU
  • Emory University
  • Grinnell
  • Tufts University
  • Bowdoin
  • Williams College
  • Pomona College

If you have any suggestions for additional colleges that would be more like a slight reach, target, safety, that would be great. Child would like to do ED (for a school in which NPC results work for us), if it will give them a strategic advantage. Child is easy going and thinks will fit in at most schools. Which schools in the above list are almost impossible to get in to for my child?

Thank you!

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So this is for next year -

I would find schools that will 100% meet your price - no matter what - so I don’t know that a UC will - that will depend on your income and state programs as they are $40K+ - but a Western Carolina, for example, is $20K all in.

And you’ll find some publics, either in the South but in other places, that could hit. And you have access to WUE - which will include a lot of schools in Western states.

In general, when I see your list (which is too long):

  1. Your Greater than 50% is great - but can they hit costs. You can get an idea from the Common Data Set Financial aid section H2 and H2A - you can see how many get merit, how much on average, subtract that from the tuition, room and board costs - to know if it’s real. Obviously these aren’t meets needs schools. You can also run the NPC. Those who ask for GPA and test score are likely to give you a cost.

20-50% - I don’t see American coming close on price, even with need.

I think the rest are unlikely - but not impossible. Connecticut most likely.

Sub 20 unlikely and I’d remove Gtown - because the test will keep him out. Others, I’d check the % testing and anyone high in percentage (like 70% submit), I’d keep out.

I noted NPCs but it seems like you have those covered.

You can never go wrong with W&L and the Johnson Scholarship.

But you do need to find schools that will hit cost. If it’s the CSU, living at home, that’s fine. But if it’s a W Carolina or a Truman State with Auto Merit (in rural Missouri) - but those at least get to cost.

WUE has schools like Boise State, UNLV or Reno, New Mexico State, Southern Utah, Wyoming, etc. that might work.

As long as you have a “sure to hit cost” option and the NPCs give you a # you like, then you are ok.

I tend to think though some of these schools - the need aware and you have high need like Juniata - are unlikely to hit your cost.

Good luck.

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Do the UC’s meet your price point using the NPC’s for this year?

The UC’s also consider your Unweighted and Weighted Uncapped so it is helpful to list all 3 GPA’s: GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub

You also confirmed that your “Honors” designated courses are weighted based on your HS UCOP a-g course list? University of California A-G Course List

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Does this mean:

  • Language 1 to high school level 2.
  • Language 2 tested at AP 5.
  • Language 3 with high school level 2 transfer credit.

?

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When we ran the NPC for several UCs last year, they did meet our price point. We’ll be running it again this summer for each UC before we finalize.

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.94

  • Weighted HS GPA: 4.23/5.0 (just to note, it’s not possible to get 5.0 at the school because many required classes are not weighted. I’m just saying that an A in an honors/AP course will give you a 5.0).

  • For UC (thank you for the link - I forgot that +/- don’t count, so I did use the link to get the correct GPAs for UC):

  • Unweighted GPA: 3.89
    Weighted GPA: 4.32
    Weighted and Capped GPA: 4.32

Courses for UC weighted GPAs are confirmed to be Honors designated by UC. The high school actually designated honors based off of what UC accepts as honors, and this is why I think they have “accelerated” designations that are higher rigor than normal classes that are not weighted but are not recognized as “honors” by UC standards.

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Language 1 to high school level 2.
Language 2 tested at AP score of 5 & 2 years of high school transfer credit. On the hs transcript, it shows as levels 2 & 3. However, in actuality, even the level 1 at the foreign language school is beyond AP level.

A few admissions officers at a CTCL fair have told the student that the AP score of 5 in Language 2 will be sufficient for admissions requirement purposes, even though the student did not take 3-4 years of a foreign language in high school. We have not dug into this further for each college at this time. Student did not excel in Language 1, so there are no plans to take more.

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I think AP is likely enough. Most of the CTCL schools aren’t hard admits. But whether they’ll hit cost is the issue. Most are need aware and will take your need, if too much for them, into account.

In other words, a high acceptance rate school may not be that for you.

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We have looked into the WUE schools but most do not fit the budget (ran the NPC). I forgot to add the OOS publics which do fit budget (University of Nevada Reno, U of North Dakota, North Dakota State, Minot State, U of South Dakota, Utah State, West Virginia & some others). Just did not look into OOS publics much because of the local CSU that they can attend.

The schools in the >50% are within budget according to NPC. But like you point out, it could be that they accept very few with higher need, and we have not dug deep yet into the CDS.

Yes, we were going to remove Georgetown with its test required policy. Will definitely look into the % of enrolled students that submitted test scores for all schools.

W&L doesn’t hit our budget - but will look into the scholarship to see if it seems remotely a possibility or not.

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Has your kid tried the SAT? If not, I would recommend doing a practice SAT in testing conditions to see how the practice score compares with the ACT. It is not uncommon for some students to do much better on one test rather than the other.

Since the high school offers AP versions of bio, chem, and physics, if your child chooses not to take one senior year, then most colleges will probably not consider the transcript as having highest rigor. When many (most?) of the colleges on the <20% acceptance rate recommend having at least 4 years each of English, math, science, social studies, and foreign languages, it’s meant taking them 9th-12th grade, not just having 4 credits with some of the credits earned in middle school. The foreign language AP will likely count for many of them, but not having taken math in junior year or science in senior year will be likely to raise some eyebrows.

If the kid is in a performing arts group with significant amount of time year round, that sounds like a lot, and your D is a varsity athlete and has four years of a club she founded and has been an officer in. With ECs, it’s the quality of the involvement in the ECs, not the quantity of ECs, and I would not describe your kid’s ECs as weak.

Your family may want to investigate QuestBridge. If accepted, it would be a good way to get a top aid package (i.e. full ride) to a top school.

I will say that this feels very reach heavy and that with the level of rigor shared, I am not super optimistic about getting an admittance to some of the schools on the list.

I’ll be back with more thoughts on the list and other possibilities to consider.

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If the locals work, then no issue with WUE.

Don’t forget you have to travel - whether WUE or otherwise. So added cost.

W&L Johnson is a Hail Mary. It’s a full ride. There are others but 10% or 40+ kids each class get.

Given the majors, I know everyone wants a big name but you can make lemonade from lemons anywhere.

UNR is strong in Intl Politics. It has the Ozmen Institute.

My daughter turned down W&L and more for # 16 of 17 rank wise of her acceptances. Interned for our state and a top DC think tank from this ‘regional’ school. So anything is possible.

From the Jan 6 hearings, I heard Christopher Newport and Kent State mentioned prominently.

The point being that while the student might not love such limitations on paper, in reality with hard work and luck they can do anything from any school.

Sounds like you have a thoughtful plan to implement.

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Social science majors are typically not overloaded, except occasionally economics or psychology, so they are less likely to be difficult to change into.

However, an undecided student does need to choose the first few semesters of courses to make progress toward all of their possible majors to avoid unintentionally closing the possibility of a major because they have not taken enough prerequisites to be able to finish the major in eight semesters.

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I’ll have them try the practice digital SAT, just in case.

The math is 4 years taken in high school, not counting the middle school math course that counts as 1yr of hs credit. It’ll be the 2nd highest rigor possible for the math track at the hs, with AP Calc AB being the 12th grade math class. (The highest rigor possible for the math track would have been to take IM3/Pre-Calc combined class, instead of taking those classes separately, & go on to take AP Calc BC in 12th grade).

The science is a bit of a problem. The student feels that they may struggle to get an A in AP bio, chem or physics. Not sure if getting a B in AP bio/chem/physics is better than not taking an AP bio/chem/physics class senior year. I’m guessing it’s probably the case for the <20% that you need to get an A in the AP science. AP environmental science is also offered at the school, but I figured it would be considered as a separate category from bio/chem/physics.

Yes, I shouldn’t really say the ECs are weak. But knowing what I know now, the ECs will be difficult to make the child stand out for college admissions purposes.

We do not qualify for QuestBridge. Our household income is too high.

I can run the NPC on any schools suggested, so please do not worry about the budget part. We’ll be able to figure out if we can afford it or not (if the NPC is somewhat accurate).

Yes, the list is very reach heavy because many of those schools in the <20% are 100% meets need schools and meets our budget (we’ve already eliminated other single digit acceptance schools, like Ivies, that would also be 100% meets need and would fit our budget).

We want to whittle down the list. We would also like to add more target/slight reach schools, if possible.

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A B is no biggy. But Honors science is fine too

If he stretches for a top school and misses, so what ? You have others. At the CTCL it won’t matter.

Those top schools are gonna be tough anyway as a TO.

I’d say strain but don’t overdo it. At the same time, a B or C aren’t life ending.

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Thank you for more info re: W&L Johnson scholarship. That is quite a high % for a full ride!

Reno is a school on our radar because we have heard good things about the poli sci program with its proximity to the state capitol & fits our budget. We’ll look into it more, along with the Ozmen Institute. Great to hear that your daughter is thriving there!

As a parent, I want to help set my child up for success, but logically, I know and agree with you that you can create your own success from any school.

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Not Reno. She goes to College of Charleston. My point is you can bring success from anywhere. Her school is also a mid size, regional. Technically UNR is a flagship but. Sue got into 16 higher ranked - hit W&L but full pay :frowning:

She did a DC semester. That’s something to look at too but may be budget limiting. But perhaps they’ll have scholarships wherever you end up assuming they have that opportunity.

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I spent a good chunk of time focusing on extremely likely admits, especially ones that I think are pretty likely to hit the budget. Your family already has one assured option, but I would love for your kid to have several so that a choice can be made come spring of senior year. Hopefully there would be other options available as well, but as a floor, there would be different options to pick from.

Extremely Likely (80-99+%)

  • Cal Poly – Humboldt: About 5600 undergrads. Sticker is about $22k.

  • Kutztown (PA ): About 6400 undergrads and would qualify for at least a $6k/yr scholarship (source). If your kid earns a 31 ACT or a 1410 SAT then it would come with an honors invite and an automatic scholarship covering in-state tuition (over $11k/year). And your D might be competitive for a Board of Governors scholarship which covers full tuition. Sticker is a little over $29k.

  • Millersville (PA ): About 5700 undergrads. There’s no scholarship chart, but there are scholarships that are up to $7k/year, and it may be possible for them to stack (source). Sticker is about $29k.

  • Slippery Rock (PA ): About 6800 undergrads. No scholarship charts, but there are multiple scholarships and I suspect your kid would be competitive (source). Sticker price is $26k.

  • Sonoma State (CA): About 5400 undergrads, and I’ve heard good things, especially about Hutchins School of Liberal Studies. And one of the nice things is that this school is part of the National Student Exchange (NSE) meaning that you pay the same tuition here that you would normally pay and your kid can spend a semester or a year at a different school in Hawaii or Guam or Puerto Rico, etc. Sticker is about $24k.

  • Southern Illinois – Carbondale: About 8200 undergrads. Your kid would likely get $5500/year here and be eligible to compete for the full ride (source). Cost would probably be a bit over $20k.

  • Truman State (MO): This school of about 3300 undergrads has already been mentioned, but I think deserves a strong second. Your kid would qualify for a $10k/year merit scholarship (source) and could compete for a bigger merit award. Cost would be about $19k.

  • U. of Minnesota – Morris: About 1k undergrads at this public liberal arts college. If your kid’s core GPA is above a 3.9, then she’d qualify for a $5k/year scholarship…if it’s above a 3.7 then it would be $3500/year (source). Your kid could also compete for larger awards. Like Sonoma State, this is a member of the NSE. Sticker of about $27k, so $22k or $23,500.

  • U. of North Carolina – Pembroke: About 5500 undergrads at this NC Promise school, meaning that there’s low tuition for everyone. It’s about $19k for tuition and fees plus room & board here.

SUNY Geneseo (about 3900 undergrads), Cortland (about 5900 undergrads), New Paltz (about 6500 undergrads), and Brockport (about 5400 undergrads) may also be of interest. They are part of the SUNY Tuition Match program (matches Berkeley’s tuition), but there are scholarships that can top the match and some of the SUNYs also give residence hall scholarships. So potentially worth investigating, but not quite as likely to meet the budget as the others…but still a chance.

Likely (60-79%)

Toss-Up (40-59%)

Lower Probability (20-39%)

Low Probability (less than 20%)

I’ll be back with some schools that would be in different buckets.

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Willamette University in Oregon could be worth a look. They don’t guarantee full-need-met aid (average percentage need met is around 79%), but they’re quite generous with merit - it would not surprise me if they met your child’s full need with a combination of merit and need aid, given their strong transcript. The campus is directly across the street from the Oregon State Capitol and Supreme Court, so not only is poli sci an academic strength of the school, but there are also great opportunities for students to get involved in state government. There are around 1600 undergrads. Greek life is present but not dominant, with participation declining steeply in recent years. A majority of students study abroad. Willamette would be a safety for acceptance… I think I’d call it a match for affordable acceptance.

Whitman, in Washington State, could be worth a look too. They give financial aid pre-reads, so you could find out ahead of time whether it would work financially.

Have you considered Dickinson and/or Denison?
Gettysburg is great for history but it may be too fratty. Same with URichmond.

Looks like you’re building a balanced list and should have good options - good luck!

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If you have already done hundreds of NPCs, then I suspect you’re the kind of person who wants to check out every possible option. With that in mind, below is a not-so-short list, but with schools that I think would be worth investigating. They have good numbers of history and political science majors, which I am using as a proxy for strength of program. Additionally, most of them are good performers in terms of the percentage of their alumni who go on to earn a doctorate in something. Based on the Net Prices at a few different income thresholds, I thought it was at least possible that they might meet your family’s budget. For some of them, particularly those that are trying to build/extend a national profile, your kid’s California residency may be an additional boost to admission chances.

These schools are sorted by their admission rates for the fall of 2023, as shown in College Navigator.

Extremely Likely (80-99+%)

  • John Carroll (OH): Abou 2300 undergrads

  • Pacific Lutheran (WA): About 2400 undergrads

  • Roanoke (VA): About 1800 undergrads

  • Saint Edward’s (TX): About 2700 undergrads

  • U. of Redlands (CA): About 2100 undergrads

  • U. of Scranton (PA ): About 3700 undergrads

  • Wheaton (IL): About 2100 undergrads at this school that its religious affiliation is more prominent than at many other religiously affiliated schools

Likely (60-79%)

  • Augustana (IL): About 2400 undergrads

  • Creighton (NE): About 4300 undergrads

  • Drew (NJ): About 1600 undergrads

  • Lewis & Clark (OR): About 2200 undergrads

  • Luther (IA): About 1500 undergrads

  • Muhlenberg (PA ): About 1800 undergrads

  • Siena (NY): About 3500 undergrads

Toss-Up (40-59%)

  • Allegheny (PA ): About 1200 undergrads

  • Austin (TX): About 1100 undergrads

  • Centre (KY): About 1400 undergrads

  • Clark (MA): About 2400 undergrads

  • Dickinson (PA ): About 2200 undergrads

  • Hobart William Smith (NY): About 1600 undergrads

  • St. Lawrence (NY): About 2100 undergrads

  • The College of Wooster: About 1900 undergrads

  • U. of Dallas (TX): About 1400 undergrads

  • Whitman (WA): About 1500 undergrads

Lower Probability (20-39%)

  • College of the Holy Cross (MA): About 3k undergrads

  • Reed (OR): About 1400 undergrads…this has a reputation of very much being a fit school

  • Skidmore (NY): About 2800 undergrads

  • Southwestern (TX): About 1500 undergrads

  • Trinity (TX): About 2500 undergrads

Low Probability (less than 20%)

  • Vassar (NY): About 2500 undergrads. 18% overall admission rate: 16% for females and 22% for males
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Beloit, the school is great. Im not a big fan of the town.
Lawrence. I happen to know a poli sci and studio art double major there now. 4 year dorm requirement. I like the area better. Small school (my son didnt like there was only 1 main cafeteria).
Gustavus, son toured, seems like a great supportive school.

My senior is off to Central Michigan. No oos tuition at 27 total coa. Your kids gpa would give 6500 off. My senior got a MAC Scholars award of 4100 a year (agree to live in a certain dorm and attend Multicultural events). Yours could apply and maybe receive one of their full ride Centralis awards. So merit and mac would make it 17k a year or less. The social media pages are a decent representation of the vibe.

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Got it. I missed the pre-calc class when first looking over the courses.

How does your kid feel about science? Even though AP Environmental Science is generally considered an easier AP science than bio/chem/physics, I still think that would be better than no science at all. Additionally, many colleges will make decisions before first semester grades are out, so even if your kid gets a “B”, it may not impact college admissions anyway. Moreover, it might be psychologically good for your kid to get a “B.” Are they the person who’s going to shy away from a challenge because they may not excel at it right away, or are they game to take it on and struggle and figure out how to succeed, even if it isn’t a model of how to do everything from the beginning? Best to get that mentality addressed in high school rather than waiting until college, IMO.

May I just say I love how gung ho you are about running the NPCs? It would make life so much easier for all people with a budget if they would do this!

I would take a look at which schools say they meet 100% of need and do NOT say that they are need-blind. Those are going to be some of your hardest admits, as those schools are the need-aware ones. I would not eliminate all of them, but that’s the category of school that I would winnow quite a bit.

This is not to say which schools would or would not accept your kid, but this NY Times resource will let you look up what percentage of a school comes from the top 1% and what percentage comes from the bottom 60%. The more lopsided/disproportional the numbers are, the bigger the need-aware effect may be (whether it’s acknowledged by the university or not). Some Colleges Have More Students From the Top 1 Percent Than the Bottom 60. Find Yours. - The New York Times

The top 10 were listed in the webpage, and then I added a couple of schools on your list in the <20% category and then from the >50% and one that was in-between the two (St. Olaf).

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Also, I would investigate all of the schools’ financial standing and outlooks. Picking a school that’s going to close before your kid graduates is heartbreaking and generally expensive, as there can be issues in getting all of the credits to transfer efficiently.