Chance me please for Northwestern/Duke ED

Chance Me / Match Me
1

Trying to figure out the ED chances for Northwestern and Duke for the below profile. Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

Asian male
GPA: 3.68 (unweighted), 4.16 (weighted), class rank: top 16% percentile
For weighted, regular classes are on a scale of 4.0 and APs are 5.0
ACT: 34 (E: 34, M: 36, R: 33, S: 33) (first attempt, not planning on taking again)
Took 12 APs so far. Taking 6 more APs in senior year. Below are scores 4 or above:.
AP Calc AB- 5, AP Calc BC- 5, AP Physics C Mech - 4, AP Comp Science Principles - 4

Honors/Activities:

Georgia’s Governor’s Honor Program (GHP) participant (selected for music, minored in math)
Georgia All State-Band, 8 & 10, Saxophone
Mastery Band, 9-12, Member
Marching Band, 9-10, Member
Competition Marching Band, 9-10, Member (contributed to several national level team awards)

Key Club - State officer in junior and senior years
Key Club - Mentored elementary school kids, 9-11
Beta Club, 11-12, Member
FBLA (Future Business Leaders of America), 9-12, Member
TSA (Technology Student Association), 9-12, Member
NGF (Next Generation Focus), 10-11, Member
National Honors Society, 11-12, Member
National Technology Honors Society, 11-12, Member
National Math Honors Society (Mu Alpha Theta), 11-12, Member
National Science Honors Society, 11-12, Member

Volunteering:

United Way, 10-12, Member (10,12) and Head Chair (11)
BlueHair Technology, 9-11, Volunteer to teach elderly how to use everyday technology
DreamersZone, Rising 10 & 12 Summers, Teacher Assistant to teach young kids how to build and program robotic kits

2

GPA is a bit below average for Duke and Northwestern, but the 34 is on target.

Both Duke and Northwestern have ED admit rates in the low 20s%. A fair number of those are athletes and legacies, so for unhooked kids the effective admit rate may be more like 15%.

So – I would say the chances are a reach or a low reach. Underestimating chances is safer, so: reach.

3

The ED acceptance rate was 26% at Northwestern and 23% at Duke last cycle. Duke admits many athletes and legacies in the ED round so an unhooked applicant is going to have a much lower acceptance rate. Not sure about Northwestern but I suspect the same with them too.

Honestly the GPA and class rank are on the low side for these types of schools.

Certainly have a reach or two on the list but spend more time focusing on match and safeties.

4

Thanks for your replies. Much appreciated!

5

You scored a 4 or better on only 4 of the 12 APs you have taken? Are you thinking that 18 APs is going to carry weight in evaluating your application?