The worst case scenario is that you waste your freshman year (25% of your undergrad experience) with one foot out the door ready to bolt. And that will be your reality whether you get into “better” schools, “worse” schools (and you have both on your list), stay where you are, or decide to drop out entirely and become a clown or pastry chef.
It’s October. Why not engage in a thought experiment and spend the next 60 days pretending that you are going to stay where you are… and develop the friendships, relationships, etc. that make college such a robust time/place in your life?