I am not going to give chances especially for the UC’s since they use a holistic/comprehensive admission process but I will list statistical data for major and campus.
SDSU with around a 75% admit rate for Leadership Studies is probably a Target. The overall campus average CSU admit GPA was 4.04 in 2024 with an average enrolled CSU GPA of 3.78 for the College of Education.
CSU Long Beach Business Major had a 31% admit rate with an average admitted CSU GPA of 3.93 specifically for Business.
SLO Agricultural Business had a projected admit rate around 64% (using 33% yield) and the CAFES SLO GPA admit range (25th-75th percentile) was 3.89-4.23
UCSC’s Sociology major admit rate was 58.8% with a Campus UC Capped weighted GPA admit range (25th-75th percentile) of 3.87-4.22
UCI’s Sociology major admit rate was 33.4% with a Campus UC Capped weighted GPA admit range (25th-75th percentile) of 4.04-4.27.
UCSB’s College of Letters and Sciences does not consider major for admissions so the College of L&S admit rate was 37% with a UC Capped weighted GPA admit range (25th-75th percentile) of 4.13-4.29.
UCLA’s Social Science majors in the College of L&S had a 9.3% admit rate with a Campus UC weighted GPA admit range (25th-75th percentile) of 4.20-4.30, Unweighted 3.95-4.00 and Social Science weighted GPA of 4.38-4.73.
SDSU and UCSC are probably the most likely acceptances.
Good luck to her and she already has some good options.