Chance Me: To apply or to buy a scratch ticket? [international, A-level A or A with distinction grades, 1580 SAT, economics]

Chance Me / Match Me
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Demographics

  • International student
  • Type of high school: Top 2 local schools
  • Gender/Race/Ethnicity: Chinese
  • Other special factors: No aid

Intended Major(s)
Economics

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: AAAA/AAA+Distinction (A-Level system; maximum rigour; maximum score)
  • Class Rank: N/A
  • ACT/SAT Scores: 1580

Coursework
History
Literature in English
Economics
Mathematics
General Paper (English)
Project Work
Game Theory (at local uni)

Awards
Outstanding Student (Junior High)
Outstanding Student (Senior High)
Distinction in Holistic Achievement
Humanities Scholarship recipient
Holistic Achievement in House (1 recipient)
Chief Commissioner’s Badge (uniformed group; top badge)

Extracurriculars
Oxford-Princeton John Locke Institute Essay Writing Competition: Shortlisted and received Distinction (top 5% of shortlist)

National economics Essay Competition: Invited to present to local school and awarded runner-up for my essay

National economics essay competition: selected to represent my school (but didn’t win raked prize :frowning: )

Enrolled by school in Economics Talent Development Programme as one of the top performers in economics cohort-wide

Interned in local hedge fund to research bond performance and code an analytical model for expected performance

Member of my school’s varsity debate team; won minor international debating competition; overall organiser for a nationwide debate competition

Core leadership position and top achievement award in school uniformed group of ~130 people, made some lasting changes to reduce hierarchical nature

Participation in 2 minor non-profits (as leader and member respectively) helping larger local charitable organisations plan, extend, develop material for its activities

Did a few online courses related to maths/econs (CS50P, intro to real analysis etc and plan to do more)

Essays/LORs/Other
Essays - I think (hope) I’m very good at writing
LORs - Good but mostly focused on academic potential

Cost Constraints / Budget
N/A

Schools

  • Safety: Not applying; would just go local/UK
  • Likely: As above
  • Match: As above
  • Reach: HYPS, UChicago, UPenn

Additional Comments
I’m under no illusion and know that the reaches I listed are very, very much reaches. However I would be willing to spend the effort (and cost) to apply if there were a 10% chance to be admitted into an individual school. As such, where should I even bother applying to?

Thanks so much! =)

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Oops I forgot to clarify! I’m from Singapore.

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Harvard (the only school you mentioned that publishes international enrollment by country) currently has 23 undergrads enrolled who hail from Singapore. That works out to about 6 enrolled per year.

According to Harvard’s 2023 CDS about 2,000 students were admitted out of ~60,000 applicants giving an overall success rate of about a third of what you seem to be looking for. Keep in mind that the international student admissions rate is probably significantly lower than the overall rate.

Then, figure in how many applicants from Singapore might have a leg up on the admissions odds: legacies, the children of the fabulously wealthy class who might land on Harvard’s development (donor) list, etc.

Bottom line is that odds for anyone without any connections, particularly internationals, applying to HYPS schools are probably significantly under 10% - even with outstanding grades and test scores.

That said, not applying drops your odds to 0.

One school where you probably have a better than 10% chance is NYU, which has a reputation for accepting full pay international students.

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Is cost a concern for your family?

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These colleges have very very low %age of admitted international students. There is no way to guarantee you have a 10% chance of admission, especially when most of these colleges have an overall acceptance rate that is lower than 10%.

You have strong things to put in your application. So just apply and see. (If you are a senior waiting…just wait and see…and good luck to you…let us know)

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Alright I see, thanks a lot for your advice guys. If I could ask, based on your experience how far below average do you think my profile is compared to your average admitted international applicant?

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There is no way to answer that because that information isn’t public. You are obviously an outstanding student with excellent ECs. Assuming strong essays you are competitive, on paper, at every school. The issue is simply that unhooked students have very low odds to begin with and being international exacerbates that.

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Once more…there is no way to answer your question. If you get accepted to these colleges, you will never know why. If you get rejected, you will never know why!

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I understand your point that with holistic admissions, it’s quite hard to say what a competitive ECs profile is. However, I just want a really rough sense about the types of ECs that the average HYPSMPC student has.

I saw people on r/chanceme (the Reddit forum) with multiple international level awards and research experience at universities. Frankly my profile is nowhere near that and if that’s the standard, I’ll save the $90

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What you seem to want is a guarantee that you will be given a 10% chance of admission. No one can give you that guarantee, not even the admissions committees because they are forming an incoming class based on received applications skills that mesh. If you expect a hardline guarantee, save your $90. You and ~60,000+ applicants are in the same boat.

For future reference, don’t list your “junior high” level awards unless they were given international press. Additionally, you seem to be “stretching” those ECs. Many, many, many students are participants in their high schools and are given “in-house” awards. When you list those items, it seems to pinpoint your lack of EC’s.

EC’s that are typically expected include: having a part-time job, long term participation in a sport, or volunteering in your community ( hospitals, parks, libraries, elderly centers, sea life protection, climate change, etc.) Those elite schools tend to like students whose EC’s are extrinsic but help their communities (think activists like: Greta Thunberg, Malala Yousafzai). That’s your competition. You shouldn’t do any activity just to be admitted. It has to come from a personal passion.

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You’re definitely competitive but for an international student it means a 1 in 15 to 1 in 20 chance, v. 1 in 100 or more.
Your ECs are fine, they show a decent picture of the way you spend your time when you’re not working toward that many ALevels.

I would apply REA to Stanford or Penn ED because you’d have a small nudge due to being full pay (compared to internationals who need financial aid and compared to need blind admissions).

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Don’t Brown and the University of Chicago have relatively low endowment per strudents, thus making a full pay student more attractive there than some of the other HYPSM schools?

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Brown is going to be need blind so it wouldn’t help.
I had missed UChic in the list!:scream:
Though I don’t know if full pay status has a significantly heavier weight there than at Penn and Stanford, Penn, Stanford, and UChic have such different vibes that OP should have a preference.

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If you attend one the “Top 2 local schools” in Singapore (which are big feeders to Oxbridge and the Ivy League), it might also be helpful to compare your profile with those of past students from these two schools who were admitted to the US universities (1) you’re interested in.

That might yield more useful insight than comparing yourself with the “average admitted international applicant.”

Having said that, as the above posters noted, things still under your control - such as how you craft your essays - could also impact your chances of admission.

(1) Check also whether they were “legacies.”

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