UVa and WM will both put you right at the $40,000 mark without any aid. JMU a good bit less. Hollins a little more. Do you mean you won’t qualify for any aid? Are you coming from a highly competitive high school in NoVa? UNC won’t be close in cost to what you need if you are full pay.
Look at Section C7 of the Common Data Set for UNC-Chapel Hill; standardized test scores are ranked higher for admissions purposes than GPA, so you are at a definite disadvantage in that regard.
Also, “alumni/ae relation” (i.e., legacy status) is not considered by JMU according to its Common Data Set.
UVA does not consider “[l]evel of applicant’s interest,” according to its Common Data Set.
I wouldn’t call Kenyon a “likely” admit, if you look at some of the numbers from its Common Data Set.
Georgetown does not have merit aid - so if you run the NPC and you don’t qualify for need aid, you can remove it.
Unfortunately, UVA (and most publics) don’t track interest - so that won’t help.
UVA will be tough because 85% are in the top 10% and 96% in the top quarter. But it’s why you label a reach. Hopefully you applied TO there - which is also not a good thing given their percentage of submitters - but your score is low. UNC is out - so you should have gotten an answer.
Tech - I don’t know if it’s likely - but certainly a match. Let’s call Kenyon the same -match at best.
JMU is out - did you get in? And Hollins a safety.
You might look at Sewanee for your major - they meet need - but you’d have to check the net price calculator. Some schools - if you need too much, they’ll reject you on that basis.
In state, if you like smaller schools, CNU would be an excellent and budget friendly choice.
Let us know how it goes - but on this list, I see JMU, Hollins and maybe one of Bucknell/Kenyon. Possibly Va Tech.
You go to a private school - so forgetting my guessing, your counselor there will be your best source of info.