Congratulations on your hard work. Race/Gender and Legacy are not considered by the UC’s or CSU’s for admission purposes. Being in the top 9% ELC does guarantee admission to a UC and the default campus is UC Merced.
Are any of the Cal states part of your local service area? https://www.calstate.edu/apply/freshman/documents/csulocaladmission-serviceareas.pdf
For Cal Poly SLO, you need to calculate your SLO GPA using 9-11th grades with the 8 semester Honors cap for UC approved Honors, AP/IB or DE courses taken 10-11th grades. You can use the Rogerhub calculator and just add your 9th grades so your SLO GPA will be the UC capped weighted number on the calculator.
https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/
For the UC’s, this table has been posted in several of the UC discussion threads. These are 2021 numbers based on the UC Capped Weighted GPA and not major specific. Data science for some campuses are High Demand/Capped so admit rates will be much lower than the overall posted.
| Campus | 4.20+ | 3.80-4.19 | 3.40-3.79 | 3.00-3.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkeley | 30% | 11% | 2% | 1% |
| Davis | 85% | 55% | 23% | 10% |
| Irvine | 60% | 31% | 14% | 1% |
| Los Angeles | 29% | 6% | 1% | 0% |
| Merced | 97% | 98% | 96% | 89% |
| Riverside | 97% | 92% | 62% | 23% |
| San Diego | 72% | 25% | 2% | 0% |
| Santa Barbara | 73% | 28% | 4% | 1% |
| Santa Cruz | 91% | 81% | 46% | 9% |
Based on the admits rates for the UC’s:
UCLA/UCB: High Reach
UCSD/UCSB/UCI: Low Reach/High Target
UCD: High Target/Target
UCSC: Target
For SJSU, did you calculate your impaction index? Impaction | Admissions
For 2022, SDSU stats major had a 39.% admit rate. Average overall campus CSU admit GPA was 3.97. SDSU could be a Target school.
For 2022, Cal Poly SLO had a projected target admit rate around 44% for Stats. Overall Science & Math College admit rate was 34% with an SLO GPA range of 4.14 – 4.25. SLO is probably a High Target/Low Reach.
Since you are ELC, I am assuming UC Merced and SJSU might your Safety/Likely schools?
Best of luck.