Chance my Daughter for U-M LSA Early Decision

Chance Me / Match Me
1

Demographics

  • Female US Citizen
  • State/Location of residency: Michigan
  • Type of high school (or current college for transfers): Public HS (Competitive)

Cost Constraints / Budget
Not a factor for U-M as we are in-state. Not relying on Aid.

Intended Major(s): Applied to LSA with interest in Communications/Media and Political Science

GPA, Rank, and Test Scores

  • Unweighted HS GPA: 3.946
  • Weighted HS GPA: 4.1108
  • Class Rank: not available
  • ACT/SAT Scores: Not submitted - Applied test optional

HS coursework

  • English: Honors 9th & 10th, AP 11th plus 4 years of journalism (honors - advanced)

  • Math: Honors level college prep (Algebra I through Pre-calc), AP Stats

  • Science: Honors Earth, Honors Bio, Honors Chem, AP Environmental (taking on-line)

  • History and social studies: Honors Freshman world history, APUSH, AP Gov, AP Psych, AP Micro-econ, AP Euro

  • Language other than English: Latin I-IV

  • Visual or performing arts: Painting and Drawing I

Awards:

AP Scholar with Distinction

Honor roll with highest honors every year

Couple art awards freshman year at school/local community level

District All-Academic athlete

All-State athlete 2 years, runner-up one year

Regional Champion/State finalist varsity tennis player

Extracurriculars
Editor in Chief of Yearbook 12th, Clubs editor 11th, staff member 9th, 10th

Supervising page editor overseeing 8 page editors for school newspaper 12th, Page editor 11th, staff member 10th

Two year team captain varsity tennis - #5 team in the state for its division 11th, 12th, Varsity player all four years

Volunteer with National Ski Patrol 9th-12th

Peer to Peer Mentor - 12th

Essays/LORs/Other
Personal statement is very strong - creative, personal, shows growth

Why Michigan - not sure

Leadership - fairly strong, discusses her speaking to local school board bond committee to convince them to include improvements to school/community tennis courts in the allocation of funds for the bond and convincing her entire tennis team to attend the meeting in support. The committee approved the addition of tennis court improvements unanimously.

LOC - from teacher she’s had for three years who oversees the school paper that she works on. They have a great relationship and teacher said it would be a pleasure and very easy to write a recommendation for her.

Schools

  • Assured (100% chance of admission and affordability): Western MI, Grand Valley, Iowa State (already accepted at these schools)

  • Extremely Likely: MSU

  • Likely: University of Iowa

  • Toss-up: IU, Penn State

  • Lower Probability: Wisconsin

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It’s hard to know with the new ED.

If anything would hurt, it would be no test - most UM students submit.

Seems the list is very good - and overly conservative (the chancing, I mean).

MSU, Iowa, IU, Penn State are all safe. Obviously budget may matter but I’d argue IU is the strongest of that group, especially if considering international politics or public administration.

Wisconsin a target.

If you wanted another safety in a state capital, given the major, UMN would be a good safety to add if you’re looking to stay in the region. Ohio State too but I’ll say likely, not safety.

Best of luck.

3

Thanks!

Budget is definitely a consideration, as we are encouraging all of our kids (this is our last) to try not to incur debt if they don’t have to. Out of state is going to require some serious scholarships and/or work to cover the difference in tuition. IU is her #2 school. She absolutely loves the campus. But they are not known for giving a lot of merit awards and OOS cost is high.

Oh, I also forgot to put Miami of Ohio on the list. That’s probably tied for #3 or 4 on her list and would also depend greatly on whether she is awarded any scholarships. She ruled out Ohio State after visiting the campus.

My logic for the estimated chancing was taking budget and likelihood of scholarship into consideration, rather than just whether or not I thought she’d get in. For instance, I know she can go to Iowa State for less than she could go to Michigan State based on their tuition and scholarships she would qualify for. University of Iowa also gives good OOS merit awards. IU OOS tuition is high and they aren’t known for lots of merit awards, so I out them lower down on the list, etc.

4

What is your budget? What is her test score - you’re not reporting but it may help elsewhere. What are her geographic limitations? Is she interested in small schools/LACs?

Miami is also a safety. It has the feel of an LAC more than a big flagship - in my opinion.

Their COA is $59K but depending on how they will weight her GPA, she’ll get merit.

She’ll either get $20K (they say at least but we got that amount) or $13K depending on how they see the weighted.

5

Our budget is comparable to an in-state school…$30-$40k/yr. She wants to go to a big state school with the “full college experience” - parties, tailgating, Greek life AND excellent academics.
She would be thrilled with either U-M or I-U.
I’m familiar with Miami’s scholarship structure, but we were disappointed with what they offered when my oldest applied. She, like yours, was offered the minimum amount for the top tier scholarship bracket, despite having higher scores and GPA. But that was 2020 at the height of COVID, so we are hoping scholarships are a little better now. My husband and I both graduated from Miami and would love to see her go there. She likes it and would be happy there, but would prefer a larger school in or near a larger town.

As for scores - they are not great, and are not at all an indicator of what kind of student she is. It’s odd because she does very well on regular school tests, and even on the AP exams. But for whatever reason, she just doesn’t do well on ACT/SAT.

6

Get her off the IU train. Ain’t happening. Sorry.

I wouldn’t suspect Miami is a go budget wise.

Again, might I ask the score - if she’s open geographically, they might get her money to make that big school affordable.

I don’t know you so you won’t be doxxed :slight_smile:

But, for example, K U - which is Indiana in a different state (cool college town, etc.)- is about $45K full pay.

They don’t require the ACT and you’ll be well within budget after auto merit. I linked below.

But an Alabama or Mississippi State or others have SAT/ACT based - hence I’m asking.

So let’s re review your list:

Lose IU but add KU as a sub.

Lose Wisconsin. You can try UMN as a sub but with their new structure, not sure it gets you to $40K - but it might.

Lose Penn State - add Nebraska or WVU. Both will hit budget.

You can take a flyer on South Carolina. If you can go a bit over $40K, Arizona works.

There could be more - if I know the test score.

Your issue isn’t admittance. Your issue is you picked schools that have no way to get to the budget.

Better to kill IU now than have your daughter beg you later, you agree and over strain yourself financially.

If she likes Miami, then why not Central Michigan - just throwing that out too.

So - when one makes a budget, they should only pick schools that either will get to budget (these are most important) or can get to - but these are less important. You need a few will and then you can have can, knowing you’re not going if you don’t hit.

While I was full pay, I set a $50K budget. When we learned at the Georgetown tour that there was no merit aid, that night in the hotel, we took like 30 schools off my daughter’s initial list of 110.

She had built a list not compliant with a budget and that’s a no no.

For you, that’s IU (yes, some will say they have a full ride but yours isn’t getting it), Wisconsin, and Penn State.

So best to remove them now and replace them as I noted above.

The Miamis of the world and a Minnesota are…“maybe”. Iowa too - it’s $48K so not sure of the merit. They say $2-15K - so in that sense it’s a maybe.

But KU makes all your problems go away - it’s literally IU down to basketball is king, it’s a cool town, etc. and as an added bonus, it’s Honors College is highly reputed.

But right now, you have Michigan and Michigan State as assured with your list for cost - and nothing else.

Good luck.

Just to summarize - sorry - my list would be:

Michigan
Michigan State
Kansas

If you wanted more, I’d choose from these with CMU, WVU and UNL assured to meet your target.

CMU
Iowa
Miami
UMN
WVU
Nebraska

If you could go further, need the SAT

Thanks

7

Haha….She is well aware of the issues with IU and budget. We told her to go ahead and apply and see what happens. But she knows very well how that will play out. We have been very firm about budget and she’s a practical kid.

My nephew is OOS at Iowa and cost is about what he would have paid in-state (MO).

I may recommend KU to her once more. I mentioned it once as my family lives in KS. But it’s a bit far away. Arizona was on her list. She hasn’t hit send yet, but I may tell her to. Also a little further than she wants to be. Central is a no-go for her. In all honesty, she will likely wind up at either MSU or Miami if she doesn’t get into U-M. But you do have me thinking about KU. Hmmm.

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KU literally parallels IU - I prefer the town more. IU campus a bit nicer. But basketball is king, although IU has football love now.

Honors doesn’t really matter for outcome but do for experience - KU > IU.

If $40k is firm, don’t Arizona.

If needs to be close, besides KU, WVU has what she wants under $30k. Ohio U, like Miami, to an extent - but lesser cost.

If she’s good with Michigan State, then you’re good.

9

@CStrong73 your student already has three acceptances. That’s terrific. That being the case, do you want more suggestions for sure thing college applications? It seems to me, these are already covered on the application list here.

Re: your question here…apply to University of Michigan and see. She has as good a chance as many other instate applicants.

I like your list as you presented, and don’t see any reason to change it. Unless you want suggestions to do so. Please clarify.

10

Hi. Thanks for the response. No, we don’t really need other suggestions. Was really just looking for thoughts on her odds of acceptance at U-M.

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I think those odds are low. I hope I am wrong. The rest of her profile is great, but Michigan is flooded with applicants who have profiles just as good that also have stellar standardized test scores.

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@Knowsstuff your thoughts?

13

So Michigan state should give her the honors scholarship with money for study abroad, mentorship etc. She would be in the running for a free ride.

She’s doing great and definitely is the type of student Michigan looks for.

I assume she’s at a target school if she is all honors and AP. How many get accepted and how many go to Michigan?Many would have her GPA.

She’s lined up correctly and at least apply EA if not ED. But with so many applications with students with great scores, it’s always a reach. You have solid backups for sure. She’s going to college so the pressure is off. That’s a great thing.

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Low chance. No way. A 3.5 unweighted to Michigan would be a low chance. Many, many students are taken with this profile. But yes, I agree with so many applications it’s a reach for all that apply. Many many Vals are denied yearly.

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Our acceptance rate for U-M is about 35-40%. Of those who are accepted, about 75% wind up going to U-M. Over the last six years, we have averaged about 117 applicants and 46 acceptances per year. Current class size is 276. Unfortunately, our school does not do class ranking. We do honor kids who have maintained a 4.0 through all four years of high school, and that tends to be about 50-60 kids, so maybe 25% of the class. My daughter is on target to be in that group so far. (knock on wood)

And she did apply ED.

16

Lol. I can guess the school now. Lol. I won’t..

You’re in great shape. You’re in a direct feeder school. But nothing is guareented.

Good luck.

17

Do you have that data by test optional or not?

My concern is really your budget for your others - as we talked about yesterday.

But if the student is ok with Michigan State, even though it’s not her desired back up, then it’s all good.