It’s hard to know with the new ED.
If anything would hurt, it would be no test - most UM students submit.
Seems the list is very good - and overly conservative (the chancing, I mean).
MSU, Iowa, IU, Penn State are all safe. Obviously budget may matter but I’d argue IU is the strongest of that group, especially if considering international politics or public administration.
Wisconsin a target.
If you wanted another safety in a state capital, given the major, UMN would be a good safety to add if you’re looking to stay in the region. Ohio State too but I’ll say likely, not safety.
Best of luck.