So the first thing is - at a private school, talk to the counselor - they’ll know where kids like you end up.
I think you have acceptances here on this list.
I don’t understand the logic of not applying to Skidmore. If you want to go, then you should apply. Worst that can happen - they say no.
You are doing a chance me but if you won’t apply to a certain school based on a perceived rejection, that makes it seem like you’ve already decided these are all acceptances - well except Oberlin which you noted is a reach.
You may look at Sewanee and Elon as two more strong in creative writing - Sewanee as another LAC and Elon as an Ithaca substitute.
It’s ok to get rejected at a school that you would like to attend.
I mean, you can’t get in if you don’t try - and no matter how many take you, you’re only going to one.
Best of luck.