So I’ll disagree a bit with the strategy.
ED is not a game.
If he wants NYU and USC, then those should be the top schools for ED.
It’s not - he really wants NYU but might apply ED to Emory or BC if he can get in. Why would you have a strong top two but give that up for schools that you have doubts about ?
Many schools have strong alumni networks and many great career outcomes reports and then the economy stinks and they don’t.
Outcomes are going to be mainly dependent on the kid. My son had 19 interviews and 5 offers by Xmas at Alabama. And yet there’s parents on here whose kids cannot find jobs from Ga Tech. My College of Charleston kid loaded up on DC intern offers and got the only job she applied for. Success will happen if your student creates it - no matter the where, no differently than it won’t happen if the student is unable to sell themselves. Jobs are not simply handed out.
There’s really no such thing as a reach or hard target in official terms. This is all opinion, a game, and many of us try and fill in the blanks.
If he likes USC and NYU, I’d think more a BU, GW, Pitt, or Syracuse than an Emory or BC - but BC more in line than Emory if you can handle religious imagery and requirements.
A name buys nothing. I work with Emory and Ga Tech undergrads and they work for W Georgia, Kennesaw, and Georgia Southern undergrads.
I assume you ED1’d at USC - so to me then Syracuse is the natural complement but colder. Then maybe a Pitt.
But you said NYU is #2 so then BU, GW.
Maybe Pitt straddles both. A UMN as a much larger school.
I think the entire have great alumni and outcomes is overrated - unless you make them worth a hoot.
If that’s what you seek, then you should look at Babson and Bentley instead of NYU and USC for getting in or SMU with Bentley and SMU solid RD candidates.
But this is not a game - if you want School A or School B but try C ED because you think you have better odds - in a made up ranking category - well then you will end up at a school you don’t love - at least initially.
If you truly want the top with your stats and financial largesse, then hit the colleges LinkedIn states are best for Career Success. Who knows more than them with their access to style data they have ?
Within their top 25, he’d be solid for
#7 Babson
# 15 Bentley
#17 Lehigh
#21 Bucknell
#23 Villanova
#25 Wake
On their list and yours -#22 BC, 24 UIUC, #27 USC, #33 Purdue, #37 SMU, #47 Indiana.
Not listed - NYU (that I see). Again, who would know more than LinkedIn
?
Forbes has another list. ASU is on it.
The point - find the right school for your kid, by feel - not one you thinks provide an advantage but may not if not the right environment for the student.
And ED is a choice and luxury. It needn’t be used. But if you use it, use it for where you want to be, not simply where you could get in which you might also get in RD, especially as a full pay family where most colleges crave full pay $.