It’s challenging and hard to predict the situation coming from NoVa where there are a lot of great students who want those schools.
But that doesn’t mean don’t apply. You should certainly get into GMU and VCU. Tech can be weird sometimes (my class of ‘22 child has a 4.2 weighted / 4.0 unweighted, 1540 SAT, Eagle Scout and captain of varsity crew team and he was waitlisted to VA Tech engineering. We assume that was because it was engineering, and that’s just a different story) and UVA is just too damn popular and they only take so many kids from each HS. So I think it depends on your HS to some extent. I’d call them targets, but not safeties.
I think Pitt could be an interesting option for you and it really feels like Case Western would be a good fit. If you are interested in a STEM-y school, my son is at WPI and loves it, and I’d be happy to tell you more about it.