Chances at Top 10 CS or Business Programs (SHMPYW, etc) vs UCs

I wanted to know my chances for ED/EA and RD at some of the top end schools, namely which school would be worth applying to ED (the spot where best school and best chance meet)

Race/Sex: White/M

GPA(expected): 4.0/5.5

Rank: 1 or 2 out of ~75

APs by graduation: 12, utilizing pretty much all courses offered at HS, extras at CC and online

High School: Small, class of 75, good for state (Nevada)

SAT: 2350 - 800CR, 770M, 780W–one sitting

ACT: 35 - 36S, 34R, 35 on rest–one sitting

Sports: 3 varsity, will be able to compete towards the top end of D3 for track (Chicago, MIT, CMU). Not sure if it will help with admissions. At the D3 schools I’d be an asset, so it will most likely help but at Harvard and Stanford I probably wouldn’t make team, will being a 3 sport athlete still help as an EC?

Leadership: Very little, will join leadership as a senior next year, most likely run for office but representative at worst, captain of 3 sports

Service: Worked on school website~30h, that’s about it. Will get 100h doing something else to get honors diploma.

Other ECs: Several college programming classes, ENTP class, private programming instruction from MIT/Stanford Ph.D, VERY limited work experience (about a month total, quit both jobs)

Recommendations: As a junior not sure yet, but my counselor and teachers generally like me but are all aware that I don’t give much effort. Not sure what this means for recommendation process.

I realize that although my test scores and grades are competitive, I will have very little chance at most of these schools, namely HSPY. MIT and some others don’t seem to be as focused on service/community involvement per say, but also list ‘passion’ as a large part of the application process.

What chances do you think I have at HSPY, and are they significantly better at a lower end Ivy, MIT or Carnegie Mellon.
Is there a school mentioned where my decision to apply ED could make it a viable chance?

Could I still get into NYU, UCLA, UCSD or even UCB with just strong academics?

What should I be doing to show ‘passion’? Should I make an app, intern somewhere?

Does being from Nevada help; should I play it up?

Sorry for all of the questions, my counselor is a bit on the incompetent side and I have yet to hire a private college counselor.

Basically my two main questions are: What are my chances at my top choices (HSM, Cmu) for CS and (HWPY) for business? What should I do to improve them in the next year and a half?

Thanks

Also, I am 1/4 Filipino. I know on apps not to put ‘Asian’, so if Asian and Pacific Islander are grouped together I’ll abstain, but when Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiian are one box should I check it?

I don’t think Filipinos are considered Pacific Islanders. I think Pacific Islanders are considered more along the lines of Oceania (places like Polynesia and Melanesia). If you can compete in D3 track, definitely go for it. A recruited athlete with those incredible stats is nearly a shoe-in for most, if not all colleges.
Being captain of 3 sports is actually a lot of leadership.
I would say definitely apply to the colleges that you are able to make the track team as being a recruited athlete is a huge plus.

I would say extremely high chance at the schools that you can make the track team (even Ivies and MIT) , like a very high chance. Very few athletes have your stats.

Not exactly sure about some schools because I don’t know how good their track teams are…

Maybe the one thing holding you back are your recommendations…especially if they think you don’t give effort.

If you have a 4.0 and very high test scores, then you’re probably just a genius. Try to participate more in class even if you know the material, try to give some effort, because while good/generic recommendations won’t hurt you, bad recs that say :" This kid never tries in any of his classes." will be a big negative when it comes to the admissions officers, probably not enough to reject you, but still something to be wary about.