Chances for NESCAC and Other LACs

Bowdoin, Amherst, Williams- very hard to get into. You would have a chance, but if you don’t LOVE one of those more than the other schools, why waste your ED on it? Middlebury is absolutely gorgeous, and despite the cold there I could see a Californian liking it. Colgate is a bit different than the others on your list- bigger, sportier, maybe frattier. The Maine schools are pretty remote, so is Hamilton. Haverford and Vassar give you better city access. So you need to think about what it is you want.
But I don’t think you should play the ED game. If you don’t have a clear favorite then you shouldn’t commit with an ED application. I think you will get into a great school even RD.