For an unhooked applicant, OOS admissions at UVA appear to be at the level of Ivy League schools 5 through 8. Very tough. A friend’s kid was an unhooked OOS candidate that got accepted to Michigan, accepted to Tufts, waitlisted at Vandy, rejected (and not even deferred from EA to RD) at UVA.
Not sure how strong the male AA hook is as compared to other hooks, but that is a pretty good hook. You’d have a shot if the stats are not too far below wherever UVA’s 25th percentile stats are.