Chances for UCs, Cal States, and Private Schools [CA resident, 3.19 UW (3.33/3.53/3.61 for UC), pre-med or pre-law]

Cal states admit by major so major choice is important in determining your chances.

Cal Poly SLO uses 9-11th a-g course grades for their GPA calculation and they cap the Honors points at 8 semesters while SJSU and SDSU use 10-11th a-g course grades for the CSU GPA calculation with the same Honors point cap.

If you have not taken any DE/CC classes then your UC Capped weighted GPA = CSU Capped weighted GPA.
For SLO, recalculate using 9-11th grades: GPA Calculator | CSU

Average admitted campus CSU GPA for SDSU was 4.06 and is an impacted campus so all majors are competitive.

For SLO the 2024 Freshman profile and GPA admit ranges by college are listed here. The GPA range is the middle 50% and since it is also another impacted campus, all majors are competitive.

Both SDSU and SLO are going to be tough admits.

For San Jose state, they calculate out an impaction index and the index thresholds are listed for each major in the links below:

There are several SJSU majors where only a minimum 2.5 CSU GPA is needed for an acceptance.

As for the UC’s, here is some general admit data based on the Capped weighed UC GPA and not major specific. This data is from 2024 and hopefully 2025 data will be soon available.

Campus 4.00+ 3.70-3.99 3.30-3.69 3.00-3.29
Berkeley 17% 3% 1% 1%
Davis 64% 28% 9% 2%
Irvine 46% 17% 3% 0%
Los Angeles 14% 2% 1% 0%
Merced 97% 97% 96% 94%
Riverside 94% 89% 73% 32%
San Diego 43% 11% 1% 0%
Santa Barbara 57% 9% 2% 0%
Santa Cruz 92% 71% 37% 11%

Also want to add this link which shows the average UC capped weighted GPA for your HS’s admits: Admissions by source school | University of California

Good luck and I would add a couple of Non-impacted Cal states to your list as Very likely schools.

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