Chances of Valedictorian of Title 1 School with Excellent EC, Very Good PIQs and 4.7+ GPA [4.0/4.25/4.75 for UC] Getting Shut Out of UCB, UCLA, UCSB, UCSD, UCI?

Colleges & Universities University of California - GENERAL
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My kid already has some excellent OOS backup school acceptances; SUNY Stonybrook, SUNY Binghamton, Maryland College Park.

We could spend the Spring break visiting them or we could spend the Spring break visiting the UCs so she can make a well informed decision. We can’t fiscally or time wise do both.

Unfortunately being an IB student doing a full 4HL + 3SL load she can’t take any days off in April due to the external evaluations associated with the IB diploma. The IB scores are critical for getting college level credit that we need financially.

Her rank is 1 out of 600+. It’s a Title 1 school and only about 30 kids do the full IB. Most are doing non-AP/IB classes.

GPA is 4.75 with Excellent Rigor IB Chem, Bio, History, English (all HL), SL is French, Math and Music.
ECs seem strong: Differentiators are she started Model UN club, two internships, one with local UC prof and another 18 month DoD internships that resulted in a paper. Then she did lots of standard stuff like Science Olympiad very well (5 State final qualifications and one top 10) but I think lots of kids will write that down. Her volunteering is a bit limited but she realistically can’t with the work load of an IB. She played JV sport and did Band.

PIQs are very good. She writes very well and the adults who read them liked them alot. One talked about leadership in starting model UN at a Title 1 school to give kids an opportunity to discuss political events give t heir wide backgrounds. One talked about her love of school Band. Another talked about how she was turned down from all standard internships so cold-called people till she got two. Another talked about her love of the STEM and using it for environmental uses.

Majors are Chem, Bio or BioChem so popular but not impacted at any UC.

I understand class rank is not everything but I think she should be in the top 10 to 20 in her class if you factor in EC, PIQs etc. So:

UCLA/UCB 50/50 coin toss.

UCSD/UCSB/UCI 75% chance

Last year UCLA/UCB admitted about 8 students each from her school. UCSD/UCSB/UCI about 20-30ish each per the UC website saying admittance by school

She’d love to go to UCB as it’s close by but she’ll be happy just to get into any. So what are her chances of not getting into ANY of these UCs?

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How can she make an informed decision if she can’t visit Bing, Stony Brook, or UMD. It makes it seem like they are lesser than a UC. hmmmmmm - that’s, IMHO, the first mistake.

I would go across the country personally - and then if she gets into UCB, there’s no decision. If she doesn’t, then you’ll know - and you can maybe do a weekend trip down south or go on a holiday weekend.

One would seem to have a great chance at a UC - but what if you actually love Bing or UMD - and feel like it’s home. What if you get Banneker Key at UMD? I’m guessing you did well at Bing. UMD would be more expensive without.

Or you cannot visit anywhere - and roll the dice. There’s video tours, other videos and more - on line.

Good luck.

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Where did your older student end up? Did this student visit any schools with your oldest?

She sounds like an accomplished student but 4.7 doesn’t tell us much. Can you calculate her three UC GPAs and share them? GPA Calculator for the University of California – RogerHub

It doesn’t sound like she will be “shut out” but I don’t know that I would give anyone a 50% chance at UCLA/UCB or a 75% chance at UCSD/UCSB/UCI.

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She’s a CA girl through and through. She would choose any of those UCs over Bing, SB or UMD. So her/my point is, if she’s highly likely to get into one of those UCs lets explore them as they are a top priority.

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Old kid only looked at UCR and UCSC and went to UCSC. Youngest kid didn’t apply to these.

Per your calculator she got 32 grades in Year 10/11 and all but 8 were honors and A’s in everything so UW/W/Capped GPA is 4.0/4.75/4.25.

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Sure for UCB/UCLA

But UCSD/UCSB/UCI accepted 20+ kids from her school each and every year for the last 3 years. So I was basing the 75% number on that history. She spent ALOT of time on her app as she really wants to stay locally.

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Then you sort of answered.

Would she go to a CC over the SB/Bing/UMD?

If she’s a California girl and you get turned down, there’s always ASU and U of A - which are closer - U of A is exceptional in the sciences. Forget selectivity, they will have loads of kids at her level.

So I think you answered your own question - because it doesn’t sound like going across the country will be for her regardless.

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Below are some UC admit rates based on Major or Discipline along with admitted UC GPA ranges for 2024/2025 Freshman by UC campus. Of course the UC’s do a Comprehensive application review and all parts of the application are considered so trying to predict chances is difficult.

Has she received an email to submit a supplemental questionnaire for UCLA or UCSD? Did she receive a request for LOR’s from Berkeley?

Campus Biology Chemistry Biochemistry
UC Berkeley 15% for College of L&S/ Capped weighted 4.17-4.30 Uncapped weighted 4.31-4.65 Unweighted 3.89-4.00 Physical Sciences 15%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.17-4.30 Weighted uncapped 4.31-4.65 Unweighted 3.89-4.00 14.8% for College of Chemistry
UC Davis 43% for College of Biological Sciences/ Capped weighted 4.07-4.28. Unweighted 3.80-4.00 37% / UC Capped weighted 4.00-4.26 Unweighted 3.80-4.00 43% for College of Biological Sciences
UC Irvine 29.5% 2025/ Capped weighted 4.12-4.29. Unweighted 3.86-4.00 40% /UC Capped weighted GPA 4.07-4.27 Unweighted 3.83-4.00 Major not available for Freshman applicants
UCLA 11% for College of L&S/Capped weighted 4.22-4.32 Uncapped weighted 4.44-4.75 2025 Unweighted 3.95-4.00 11% College of L&S does not admit by major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.23-4.32 Weighted uncapped 4.50-4.77 Unweighted 3.95-4.00 11% for the College of L&S
UC Merced 92%/ Capped weighted 3.40-4.00 89%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 3.59-4.13 90%
UC Riverside 66%/ Capped weighted 3.76-4.07 91%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 3.75-4.18 87%
UC San Diego Estimated 33% UC Capped weighted 4.13-4.29. Unweighted 3.84-4.00 Estimated 32%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.13-4.30 Unweighted 3.84-4.00 No major specific data but estimated <35%
UC Santa Barbara 34% for College of L&S/ Capped weighted 4.14-4.29. Average Unweighted 3.91. 32% College of L&S does not admit by major/ UC Capped weighted GPA 4.15-4.30 Avg. Unweighted 3.90 32% for the College of L&S
UC Santa Cruz 69% / Capped weighted 3.90-4.23 65%/ UC Capped weighted GPA 3.90-4.25 55%
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I doubt it. She will transfer in (per UC guidelines) about 90 quarter credits so should enter UC as a junior if she gets 5 or better in her IB exams. Not sure she could take much classes at a CC.

But to your second point. She’s a CA girl, but she’s not a door mat! If CA doesn’t want her, she will go to an equally ranked school like SB/Bing/UMD not to CC.

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Thank you. That’s useful. She did not receive any of those. I thought the augmented review process for UCLA, UCSD or UCB were for borderline students and they needed more information on them. Or did I misunderstand their purpose?

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I didn’t infer she’s a doormat and CA valedictorians go to CC.

My point was there are other closer schools - hence the Arizona schools - that are substitutional (and frankly better known ) than the SUNYs. UMD is great but here’s one thing you need to remember - a kid will be somewhere four years, day after day.

Guess what happens to many chasing a US News rank - which means little btw - they get homesick. Maybe like my kid, you have to fly them home or go to them or deal with crying FaceTime daily til they get adjusted.

if you were from the East and really wanted to stay, but had Arizona as a fallback, I’d suggest other subs back East - because a perceived rank doesn’t bring happiness once you step foot on campus.

I asked a question but your response made it seem like she wants to be out west - so there are equally good schools out west - where she can be closer to home if a UC doesn’t work out - but based on @Gumbymom stats it will. That’s all I did. They will all get her to the same place.

Look at PhD feeders froM College Transition - none of the 3 East Coast or U of A/ASUare in the 50 per capita on bio. The only SUNY is ESF at 21st. But on pure volume, u of A is 31 and ASU 41. Yes, UMD - is higher - not sure of the size of the program but all have heft. Neither SUNY is on the list.

For Chem, Arizona, Bing and UMD are top 50 but none top 50 per capita.

If your kid is fine across the country - great. But if you have concern, there’s literally no difference between those 3 school and the two closer that might make the transition easier - and they’d be with more Californians so a more similar student body.

I suspect she’ll have a UC but no one knows but given how you answered I’d spend my travel money out west and not east.

Good luck

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Not necessarily. My daughter got an LOR request from UCB when she applied and we had thought the same as you. But she was later selected as a Regent’s Scholar, so it is clear she hadn’t been borderline, as we had thought. In other words, supplemental review is to get additional information on applicants, but the reason they seek additional information can vary.

If she’s top of her class, then that’s a very good sign for her. I very much doubt she will get shut out. Of course, nothing is ever 100% certain, but she has an excellent chance at a few acceptances.

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Interesting about supplemental review for Regents scholar at Berkeley. That’s a great accomplishment! Do you know what triggered it? I was thinking she’d get one, because a lot of her accomplishments (i.e. scientific paper, visiting the UN HQ etc) needed some sort of verification and only her research advisors could do it.

Yeah, we were thinking rank isn’t everything. But her ECs and PIQs are pretty well done so she should be top 10 or 20 considering everything. And if UCSB, UCSD, UCI accepts 20+ students each year from her school, she has a solid chance of at least one.

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The supplemental review? I really don’t know. That year, a number of students got requests for LORs from Berkeley. We never figured out why that was, but of those who got the request, several were accepted. Several students did NOT get the request. And several of them were accepted, too. For some reason, they wanted more info on those applicants, but it didn’t end up seeming to indicate likely acceptance or rejection.

Likely so. I would be quite surprised if she ended up with zero UC acceptances (again with the caveat that nothing in UC admissions is ever guaranteed).

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Changing direction. I really hate that UC gives so much uncertainty for these kids who are clearly dedicated to learning and have proven themselves. There are about 10 of them in her school who are just super scholars. Title 1 schools have all sorts of issues and these kids lifted themselves up by the bootstraps. They car pool to Science Olympiad state finals, drove themselves to the local UC to knock on doors for internships etc. But I’m sure some of them won’t get into their UCs of choice even though they are applying to a quite a few of them.

IB is so time consuming particularly during senior year and she and her friends must have easily spent 30+ hours each researching OOS schools because of (say) the 10% chance that one of their chosen UCs doesn’t accept them because of some subjective judgement made by a reader on a PIQ they spent 2 minutes reading and the kid spent 2+ hours writing.

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The problem is that there are so many such students throughout California (we’re a large state!) and a few “top” UC campuses can’t accommodate them all, while ensuring that their student body represents the state population they were created to serve. I think a better way to look at it is there are 9 amazing UC campuses (10 if you count UCSF) along with a whopping 23 CSU campuses all over the state, each of which offering a top notch education. There is a place for pretty much every California student who wants to attend college in state - and that’s quite an accomplishment. This isn’t even counting the CC to UC route (with the TAG program or otherwise). Plus the financial aid through things like CalGrants and the Middle Class Scholarship. It really is an amazing system. Every student has the opportunity to get a solid in-state education - although it’s true that it may not be at your first or second or third choice campus.

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The problem is that there are far more students like than than any particular UC can accept. Moreover, since their mission is to serve the entire state of California, they cannot focus on a small number of high schools. Maybe they should have something like TX, with certain ranks being auto accepted to flagships, more for the rest of the UCs and CSUs, etc.

Of course, it being California, I can see multiple lawsuits every year against high schools by parents who believe that their kid didn’t get the grades they “deserved” and therefore “missed” their chances at Berkeley, or against UCLA because their kid was “almost” in the top 5% (or whatever it would be) of their class and should have had an auto-admission…

Still, I think that Texas has something there, and other states should explore it. Also, students like those at your kids’ high school should have more love from the UCs.

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Another thing to think about -

every school is different in vibes-- right or not, schools like Stony Brook and Irvine have the suitcase reputation. How would your student feel being alone on the weekend on Long Island ? Something to think about beyond whatever rank is being used. Every campus has a vibe of some sort that is likely far more important than perceived reputation. I would make sure I learn about those type things to ensure I understood b4 attending. Given both campuses are so close to a large chunk of their students is why this happens. The SUNY schools are amongst the least geographically diverse in the country. They are trying to change that but so far the data isn’t showing that it’s working.

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Sorry that’s a platitude people often make due to conflating freshmen spots with freshmen admits. You should consider freshmen admits not spots. UCB, UCLA, UCSD, UCI, UCSB all have 110K plus applications (some are approaching 150k) and their acceptances are (about) 10%, 10%, 25%, 30% and 35% respectfully. That’s a total of 120K+ admits. California has about 500K graduating seniors. So there is plenty of room at the top UCs for the best students which I was referring to.

I strongly suspect that each UCs are chasing the same demographics so the same kids get accepted many times.

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Is it really the case?

My kid is very similar to the OPs and we also spent sooo much time wasted on OOS apps. Such as waste. Both of our kids are top 10 or so in classes of 500+ in terms of GPA, EC, effort in PIQs. Hard to imagine that with UCB, UCSD, UCI and UCLA accepting close to 100K between them that such a student wouldn’t be accepted by at least a few of them. After all as pointed out later on (and fact checked by me) CA only graduates about 500K students a year so.

I agree with the OP. The UCs are chasing the same demographics amongst all students to the deteriment of CA and the families. I really feel for the kids who get left out. Its painful to be rejected anytime and by your state despite being good enough really bites. And don’t tell me most of you wouldn’t feel the same if you were, say, passed up for a job promotion due to “holisitic review”. We’d all be complaining and probably suing!