<p>Continuing to procrastinate. . . Luvmygirls PA is slightly less clear compared to Texas because sum of Juniors scoring in the 75-80 range in at least one category is roughly the same (2,178 this year v. 2,228 last year); but when the next grouping (70-74) is factored in (which makes sense given PA cut-off scores in the past) the trend also looks slightly downward. Nothing to indicate a bump up, so unless number of HS graduates is dropping dramatically in PA, I would guess same or lower cut-off.
Given my need to procrastianate, I probably will do all 50 States by September!</p>
<p>Hmm, interesting thoughts. I hadn’t considered something like that. For what it’s worth though, my own son in PA only makes the top category for math. His writing is in the 70-74, and his CR doesn’t even make the top two. (Good thing he rocked the math, LOL!)</p>
<p>I feel like I’m taking way too many shortcuts with my own analysis, because I really have no idea about graduation numbers, or past state qualifier numbers. I’m just waving my hands a bit with the top ranges, and predicting “up” or “down” from there.</p>
<p>P.S: I missed my point in the last post. My point was that I am very optimistic about my son making the cut, with a 220 in PA, yet he wouldn’t show up in all of the counted groups.</p>
<p>One other thought, that I’ve avoided, because it scares me somewhat. For NCLB purposes, I know that PA has recently changed how we “count” graduating seniors. I have NO idea if this means anything for NMS, or how each group really does the counting. I can’t even remember which direction that skewed the NCLB data, but I remember reading it was a significant change. Not sure if this applies to any other states or not.</p>
<p>ProcrastiDad, thanks for looking at the PA data. I see what you’re saying about the numbers. Would it also work in my favor that although the number of high scorers seem similar, there were about 1700 more test takers in PA this year or is the change too small to be of significant impact? Looks like it’s going to be a long wait for many of us!</p>
<p>Barfly, from 2012 to 2013, Texas population climbed from 8.3% to 8.366% of total US. Texas population is growing at a rate double that of US as a whole.
<a href=“http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48000.html”>http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/48000.html</a></p>
<p>This is an ongoing process. Every year Texas has more of the 16,000 NMSFs while other states not growing, or not growing as quickly as states like Texas, will have fewer. That is assuming that growth of HS grads in Texas relative to US as a whole roughly parallels the population growth. </p>
<p>The commendation cut will really help I think, and that’s due out in April. For PA, the cut distance from the commendation level has been either 13 or 14 points for the last 10 years, which the exception of 2009, when it was +15. 2009 has messed up my data analysis on other measures as well. Of course that one point from +13 to +14 will still leave some in the stress seat.</p>
<p>PAmom, I would imagine that all state counts (for nms purposes) would have to be computed in an equal way. I am aware if the PA change, and even if it factors in, I believe it would reflect a HIGHER number of graduates. </p>
<p>PA mom, can you tell me what the commended cutoffs were for the past few years? I can’t find that info.</p>
<p>Test Year/Class of/Commended cut
2002 2004 201
2003 2005 202
2004 2006 202
2005 2007 203
2006 2008 200
2007 2009 200
2008 2010 201
2009 2011 201
2010 2012 202
2011 2013 200
2012 2014 203</p>
<p>PAMom21, you point is well taken that all of the NMSFs for PA (and most if not all States) will not have at least a 70 in each subject (some will score very high in one or two and not so high in others). Indeed, it is the inability to predict (or better yet, actually know) the combinations of scores obtained that makes this a guessing game. But for trending predictions, comparing inter-year data re the total number of scores in the 75-80 and then 70-80 for each of the subjects will likley predict the direction of the cut-off for a State like PA. For a State that usually has a relatively low cut-off, it might be worthwhile to add in the next set of scores (65-69).
No doubt this is an interesting year where, because math numbers are way up but the numbers for other sections are generally down, the combinations of scores that make the cut-off could be different from prior years. Last year (at least for CA) the numbers were up in all subjects compared to the year prior to last, so a prediction upward was a no-brainer. </p>
<p>Makes sense ProcrastiDad. I’m trying to process whether it’s a good thing that my son has his highest score in math, or whether it matters at all.</p>
<p>Just based on kids and scores I’ve known personally over the years, I think it’s pretty common, at least among the bright set, to have one somewhat random score in the 70+ range. My older child had this profile, even though she really wasn’t in the running for NMS at the time.</p>
<p>I’d say his 220 in PA is rock solid. </p>
<p>@PAMom21, the reason 2009 is all messed up is because that’s when Barack Obama became the president. </p>
<p>:)) </p>
<p>OK, now don’t anyone get offended. It was just a little joke! I live in Texas, so I am expected to make Obama jokes. And I grew up in Illinois, so I am entitled to make Obama jokes.</p>
<p>Now, back to the date crunching. </p>
<p>But not ALL NMSF’s will have at least a 70 in each subject, ProcrastiDad. For example, 78+74+68=220. I think it may be quite common for NMSFs to ace one section and score in the 60’s for another section.</p>
<p>@PAMom21 re your last post: I agree! We know many kids with one score in the 70-80 range. I wonder if that is especially true for Math kids, who find the Math easy but struggle with both the CR and W sections. What worries me is that the Math scores are so high this time that many of the CR type kids may have scored better than usual in Math.</p>
<p>@celesteroberts, thanks! It never occurred to me to look at US census data! Texas seems to have about 5% fewer high school grads than the country as a whole, but stats I found show that Texas has greatly improved it’s HS grad rate/decreased its drop out rate, although that may be a nationwide trend. Do you know for a fact that Texas gets more NMSFs every year? I haven’t seen any numbers other than for the last 2 years, and I wonder how frequently NMSC re-allocates NMSFs. </p>
<p>Wow! I will take a break from posting now. Otherwise my little hiking boots will look like a stampede. </p>
<p>Barfly, nope, no facts. Actually the increase you had last year was huge, much larger than the gain in population status Texas made that year. Maybe that was NMSC’s once a 5-year adjustment, or however often they look at HS graduation #s. No, I only meant that the long term trend for TX is an increasing share of NMSFs. TX’s population skews young, and so does its increase, so the effect of its burgeoning population may be even larger than simple population numbers suggest, not sure by how much.</p>
<p>Re HS graduation rates, someone earlier posted a WICHE (I think) report that projects high school graduation rates for all States. College Board must use a report like that (or that exact report). Report implies a high degree of confidence re its projections.</p>
<p>Re many NM semi-finalists potentially doing extremely well in one or two sections and less well in one or two other sections, no doubt this can and does occur. My point is when looking for cut-off trend one year to the next, the value of comparing the total number of scores in lower groupings is less important than looking at the top one or two groups (and maybe the 65-69 group for States with traditionally low cut-offs). The trend, if any, should show up in the top one or two scoring groups (I think).</p>