<p>Could someone predict the cutoff for MD this year? It seems with the techniques some people use, a very accurate prediction can be made. It was 223 last year, a record high. What do you think will happen to it? It will go down for sure, but by how much?</p>
<p>crtexxx, I agree likelihood is that Maryland’s cut-off will go down (number of math high scorers up but significantly outweighed by lower number of top scorers in CR and Writing sections, true for 75-80 and 70-80 groupings). I am only looking at past two years though, so can’t really guess how low the cut-off will go. You might want to look back a few more years and to get a sense of where this year’s data fits in with prior years. And keep in mind all predictions here are guesses based on partial info only. What’s the number you need? </p>
<p>I am freaking out because I am in TN. The cutoff last year was 212. S made a 212 this year. I don’t see that there has ever been a year in which the cutoff stayed the same. It would be wonderful if someone could help me analyze the TN data. TN had a total “wash” if one looks at the % increase in CR, increase in M, and decrease in WS. The increases totaled .6% higher and the decreases totaled .6% lower in the 75-80 range from 2012 to 2013. However, Nationally the mean was 47.3 and TN was 50.6. In 2012, 4.3% were in the 75-80 range and decreased to 4.08% in the 75-80 range in 2013. In 2012, 656 students were in the 75-80 range. in 2013, 623 students were in the 75-80 range. in 2012, the top 2.11% were NMS or 322 out of the 15,225 who took the test. In 2013, more students took the test (15,258). Any thoughts?</p>
<p>Can anyone predict whether DC is likely to go down a point? Math stayed same, and CR and Writing were both down. </p>
<p>I just feel like cut-offs arelike the extras airlines tack on…once they’ve raised the prices they hate to lower them. DC is usually tied with a few other states for highest cutoff. Does that play into things at all? Would they legitimately lower DC if the other two high cut-off states stay the same as last year? Some states seem so invested in having the highest cut-offs as a badge of honor!</p>
<p>Barfly - see this from NMSC, scroll down to the annual report and go to page 23</p>
<p><a href=“http://nationalmerit.org/”>http://nationalmerit.org/</a> </p>
<p>This gives the semi-finalist numbers for 2012-13 test takers, class of 2014. Also commended numbers. I also have the 2011-12 numbers. NMSC does not seem to archive these annual reports so I don’t have earlier numbers.</p>
<p>I’m pretty certain that the Saturday test takers are a very small %. The only school I know for a fact that does the Saturday test is the Davidson Academy in Reno. I remember reading some parent posts of students taking the Saturday test. Maybe some of you might chime in as to knowledge of numbers of Saturday test takers. I forgot to take the Saturday test into consideration when I wrote about the 3 math scores in the 75-80 score range.</p>
<p>Celesteroberts - thanks for the census numbers.</p>
<p>My daughter tested on Saturday. It is common in the northeast.</p>
<p>TN data is interesting (off-setting increases and decreases when looking at 75-80 or 70-80 numbers). Mom2bga you say TN has never had a “No Change” year; well I think this may be the year. Caveat for TN is that b/c it is relatively small, there may be greater variability (I’ve not looked). Remember College Board is trying to pick a cut-off that gets them close to each State’s proportionate share of NM Semi-finalists (based on percentage of graduating seniors). </p>
<p>DC looks like it should go down, but it obviously has an even smaller share of the NM Semi-finalists than TN, so perhaps it always gets close to the target with a very high cut-off. But unlike almost every other State (okay, DC is not a State), DC did not see a big jump in math top scorers (78 this year versus 75 last year). Meanwhile, CR top scorers went from 102 to 76 and Writing top scorers went from 109 to 53 (cut by more than half). So greatfallsmom this is the year to see just how “sticky” the cut-off score for DC is.</p>
<p>luvmygirls - see page 1 of this posting for the best display of commended and state cutoffs.</p>
<p>numbersfun-- What I don’t understand is that the annual reports do not show the same number of test takers that is shown on the 2012-2013 report. I compared the annual report to the state summary reports for several different states, and the numbers listed on the annual are lower–even the total number of program entrants. I’m not sure where those numbers are coming from.</p>
<p>Saturday testing is very common I think in lower performing schools that don’t want to miss a teaching day. We only offer Saturday testing.</p>
<p>I have been trying to figure out how you are all calculating this and if I am figuring it out at all correctly. We are in Michigan. Class of 2013 cutoff was 209, class of 2014 cutoff was 210. Looks like between those two years, CR and W took big jumps up, with Math taking a slight decrease. For class of 2015, Math took a big increase, while CR took a big decrease and W took at slight decrease. S was a 209… I am thinking that may be the cut off again? Or do I need to go back more years to make that call? I hate the bubble!!!</p>
<p>Just realizing that I did not look at the total number of students that took the test… how much does that play into it?</p>
<p>Thank you, ProcrastiDad! </p>
<p>You seem like a knowledgeable bunch of people, if anyone can answer this question, I’d really appreciate it: if you go to a private school in a state that’s different than your home state, which state cut off applies to you?
I live in PA, but go to school in NJ, which has a much higher cut off. I’m really hoping I made it (226), because last year’s cut off for NJ was 224, and I doubt it went up 2 points.
Thoughts? Thanks!</p>
<p>It’s the state in which you test that counts. You should be safe with that score.</p>
<p>Marshmallowpop. Congrats! You will be subject to a “Boarding School Region Cut-off” (if going to boarding school in NJ or the NJ State cut-off if you commute to school–but at 226 you are almost certainly safely above all cut-offs. </p>
<p>wrights1994, you may want to play with the numbers for Michigan more than I just did, but here are some thoughts:
Michigan’s increase in top Math scores was more dramatic than CA’s, and that increase more than off-set the reduction in top scores for CR and W. However, if you add in the next group of scores (70-74), then the gap closes between 2012 and 2013 high scorers (i.e., there were only slightly more in 2013). I think clearly factoring scores in the 70-74 range makes sense for Michigan given the cut-off scores in past years. Adding in the total number of 65-70 scores may even be helpful to compare between years in order to try to guess the direction of the cut-off. Michigan is the first State I’ve looked at where my “voodoo” shows a slight potential for increase rather than decrease, but I think more than anything it shows a good chance of the same cut-off score. And my method is by no means fool-proof.</p>
<p>Only if the private school is not a boarding school. Boarding schools have a different cutoff based on geography.
See page 1, second post on this thread.</p>
<p>@wrights1994, the number of test-takers doesn’t affect the number of NMSFs per state. That is determined by the number of high school graduates in the state. That is why no one here is really taking the number of test-takers into account when making our guesstimates of cutoff scores.</p>
<p>Procrastidad and others - the interesting thing I keep noting is that we all keep talking about the increase in high scoring math scores. But the mean math score didn’t budge. CR and WR mean went down, but the Math mean was unchanged. I find this very interesting. Math was easier for top students but no different from last year for the rest of the students. CR and WR was generally more difficult for all students, as reported here and in the mean scores. The combination of scores from different ranges will most likely be more important this year. I think procrasitdad is on the right track to look at scores in the 65-70 range, specifically for CR and WR.</p>