<p>Luvmygirls: Are you taking the numbers from the college board site for data on PSAT or NMSC? I don’t know where your numbers are from so can’t figure out the discrepancy.</p>
<p>The numbers and the dates are starting to fry my brain. Being from PA though, I pulled my own data in regard to number of testers. On page 23 of the recently linked annual report, it shows 70,222 “2013 program entrants” for PA. Now…this is for the class of 2014, right? Kids who tested in 2012. But they entered the program in 2013? Is that how that date works?</p>
<p>Regardless, here are the “number of juniors taking the PSAT” in PA for the past few years, from the state summary reports.</p>
<p>2013 74,941
2012 73,223
2011 74,749
2010 79,788</p>
<p>Where did the 70,222 come from???</p>
<p>PAmom- that was my question, too. Numbers don’t match the reports for all states I checked. Numbersfun, see Pamom s previous post.</p>
<p>My confusion in looking at just the numbers for Math is that technically the number of students in the 70-80 group went up by less than 20 students, but the percentage stayed at 4.7% like last year. I can’t wait for this process to be over!!,</p>
<p>Here is one thing I finally think I’ve figured out on one of the discrepancies I had noticed. Remember that in 2012, CB started reporting stats on the “Understanding 20-- PSAT/NMSQT Scores” report based on the prior year’s test-takers. That means that the 2011 report, based on 2011 test-takers, and the 2012 report, also based on 2011 test-takers, would be identical. But they are not. </p>
<p>The reason, I believe, is that in past years, when the correct year’s data was used, it was based on a “sampling” of the test-takers. Starting in 2012, the data was based on ALL of the prior year’s test-takers. So, the “Understanding 2011 PSAT/NMSQT Scores” report is based on a sampling of students who took the test in 2011, and the “Understanding 2012 PSAT/NMSQT Scores” report is based on ALL students who took the test in 2011. That, I believe, explains the slight discrepancy in those numbers. </p>
<p>I don’t think this has anything to do with the PA numbers you are looking at, but thought I’d point it out in case anyone else has noticed the discrepancy.</p>
<p>I think I am better off putting it back in the drawer and not thinking about it until September. At 209 in Michigan he is clearly on the bubble. No way to clearly tell if he will make it or not. UGH.</p>
<p>PAmom - my understanding of the 2012-2013 Annual Report is that it lists the number of NMSFs and commended for the class of 2013. You are right - the number of entrants does not equal the College Board state reports for test takers in 2011 (or 2012 ) and the total number of entrants does not equal the number of Juniors taking the test as listed on CB’s website for the College Bound Juniors 2011 (or any year around 2011).
This is also true for the data from the 2011-2012 NMSC Annual Report with regards to CO’s program entrants and total entrants as in comparison to the numbers for test takers reported by College Board.<br>
I put a phone call into the NMSC and left a voice message for the Public Information dept. Will let you know what they say.<br>
The number discrepancy is large, about 95K fewer program entrants listed on the NMSC annual report for Class of 2013 vs. the CB’s Junior test taker numbers for 2011 and about 70K fewer 2012 program entrants vs. the CB Junior test taker numbers for 2010.<br>
I got a call back from NMSC - the person is looking into it for me/us.</p>
<p>Good eyes PAmom and Luvmygirls.</p>
<p>PAMOM, your data shows a 203 commended cut off for 2005-2006 (class of 2007)Do you happen to know what the cut off was for PA in that year? I’m looking into your info about PAs relationship to the commended score. Thanks!</p>
<p>Got a call back - NMSC says the number difference is because many kids fill in the bubble saying they are Juniors but do not fill in the rest of the of the required information to become a NMSQT entrant. Wow - that is about 6% of the kids that took the test in 2011 and 4.5% of the kids who tested in 2010. There is also a small additional number of kids that qualify and become program entrants using their SAT numbers instead of PSAT. My understanding is that those kids have to have a very good reason for not taking the PSAT. Let’s just assume that the didn’t fill out the bubble kids were not contenders for NMSF otherwise they would have filled out the rest of the
bubbles. Don’t know how to take this into consideration regarding any of our estimates, guesstimates, statistical analyses, hopes or prayers.
I’m going back to waiting for the April high scoring letters. Hopefully there will be a thread with scores that show us the bottom level of scores that get the letter. As noted by others, for their respective states, the difference between commended and state cutoff for CO has stayed in the 12-13 pt range since class of 2006 with one 11 pt difference for class of 2011. I guess, if historical precedent has any value, we will have a better idea in April of the cutoff. Or, we can forget about it until August/September - but where’s the fun in that?</p>
<p>I don’t know if comparing the difference for the states between commended vs NMSF is the best way to predict since some states have had a number same as commended (any who had lower?) in the past.</p>
<p>I suggest the predictor might be if commended goes down from 203. If it stays the same, the cut offs might not vary much.</p>
<p>luvmygirls- Class of 2007 PA cutoff scores were 217. That year was a high cutoff year for just about every state.
See page 1 of this thread for really good historical data. Lonelynerd has a great post with a lot of info. Sorry -it was reposted by Ilfather.</p>
<p>Are you sure about a 217 in 2007? I thought that last year was a PA high and that we hadn’t seen it before.</p>
<p>Luv, neither CB or NMSC publish the actual state cuts. But there are other people “on it” so to speak, and somehow that data gets out every year. But basically we are at the mercy of what others have collected. Here is the info I have though, verified through multiple sources from PA. I’m cutting and pasting the previous info and adding PA to it. We have had the 217 before, but just once (in the past 11 years anyway).</p>
<p>Test Year/Class of/Commended/PA
2002 2004 201 215
2003 2005 202 215
2004 2006 202 215
2005 2007 203 217
2006 2008 200 214
2007 2009 200 213
2008 2010 201 214
2009 2011 201 216
2010 2012 202 215
2011 2013 200 214
2012 2014 203 217</p>
<p>The distance from the commended cut to the PA cut is typically +13 or +14, but one year it was +15. And while that sounds fairly consistent, that three year point spread isn’t very helpful for those on the bubble. No matter what “smoke and mirrors” I use, I typically get an expected cut…and two other values right below and right above, which really doesn’t narrow things down all that much, for something that in PA has only ranged over a 4 point spread in recent history.</p>
<p>“NMSC says the number difference is because many kids fill in the bubble saying they are Juniors but do not fill in the rest of the of the required information to become a NMSQT entrant.”</p>
<p>Oh please tell me that the little asterisk means we’re good! I hadn’t even considered the possibility of “not filling in required information”!!! Thanks for calling, interesting feedback.</p>
<p>The asterisk means you qualify for entry. No worries!</p>
<p>Could someone make projections for AL? With a 212, it would be much appreciated!</p>
<p>Just because I tend to be a little OCD and all that, I double checked my kid’s report just now, and panicked when I did NOT see an asterisk. But I’m breathing again, now that I realize the asterisk means you do NOT qualify…that’s from the sophomore report. Whew! It does say something like if his score meets the cut, he’ll be notified in the fall. Whew! One less thing to worry about, LOL!</p>
<p>@PAMom21 and @luvmygirls, the asterisk does NOT mean you qualify for entry. The score report for students with an asterisk says “The asterisk net to your Selection Index means that you do not meet entry requirements for NMSC’s 2014 programs”. You need to get this straightened out with CB or NMSC - not sure which one. I do think it is fixable. Score reports for sophomores have the asterisk and the explanation, but for juniors you should not have an asterisk. PAMom, perhaps it is a glitch due to your student graduating early?</p>
<p>@numbersfun, I think that 6% also includes students who did fill out the info but just are not eligible for reasons such as not being US citizens.</p>
<p>Sorry @PAMom21. Our posts crossed in cyberspace! Glad you do NOT see an asterisk!</p>