<p>GMTplus7, they select the cutoff to fill the state quota. There is no gender based cutoff by state.</p>
<p>Finding the cutoff by regressing score against exam year will not be an appropriate statistical technique, this is not a time series analysis. Instead, regressing the cutoff against % in the top one or two layers for all the 3 components (so multi variate analysis) of the test is a viable option. Using a similar approach, my cutoff prediction for CT is 219 (or 220 at the most). For NJ, my expectation is 223 (max 224). Anyway, I will know in September if I am good at this prediction or not.</p>
<p>@GMTplus7 It does still help a difference even though gender is not considered in the cutoffs. It provides an extra piece of information as long as the section (CR,M,W) with the minimum number of scorers is different between males and females. If it is the same section for both, then considering them separately will give the same result as just considering them together. For instance, considering New Mexico</p>
<p>Year Gender Section w/ fewest scorers in 70-80 Number of Scorers in this section Total
2011 M Writing 32
2011 F Writing 51
2011 Total 83</p>
<p>2012 M Writing 69
2012 F Writing 35<br>
2012 Total 104</p>
<p>And then I look at the section with minimum number of high scorers for the population as a whole and, not surprisingly, it is 83 from 2011 and 104 from 2012. That is expected because in these two cases writing was the section with the fewest scorers for both males and females.</p>
<p>But in 2013 the story is different</p>
<p>2013 M Writing 59
2013 F Math 57
2013 Total 116</p>
<p>So, if we assume that 100% of these scorers are represented in the other two sections as an upper bound, then the maximum number of students scoring high in all three subjects is 116. But if you look at the tables for all the students together, the section with the lowest number of high scorers (W) is 147 so the upper bound estimate of the maximum number of kids scoring high in all three subjects has been reduced from 147 to 116 by considering male/females separately. </p>
<p>New Mexico is a very small population state so things can change rather drastically year-to-year and the number of high scorers in all sections jumped substantially this year. I see no way that New Mexico will drop from 210 and I expect it will go up 1, maybe even 2, points based on this. (Unless of course there was a substantial increase in scorers who are inconsistent across the sections.)</p>
<p>Just received my “principal” letter stating the cutoff is at 201. I haven’t read the entire thread, so if this is irrelevant just ignore this.:)</p>
<p>Can someone predict cutoff for Washington state class of 2015?</p>
<p>Oooh, that 201 is going to make a lot of people happy! I wish the regular folks still got letters. I hope my principal confirms my kid is on the list. I still worry about technical glitches.</p>
<p>Letter states “…With a Selection Index score of 201 or above, these high performers have shown outstanding academic potential. Of some 1.5 million program entrants, each of these students is among the 50,000 highest scoring participants who will be recognized in the fall of their senior year.”
It continues on telling me to review the list of names on the next page and notify of any changes. Continues on about the program…semifinalists and commended students in the 2015 NM Program will learn of their standing in Sept. Information will be sent to principals to inform their students. Separate page listing name of school and student (s) with a heading: Students who will receive recognition in the 2015 National Merit Scol. Program in the fall of their senior year.</p>
<p>Thanks for posting that @isaelijohac.</p>
<p>@isaelijohac which state is 201 for?</p>
<p>^^^ 201 is the commended cutoff for all states. Top 50,000 of all juniors.</p>
<p>203 was commended cutoff last time, so it would be hard to see state cutoffs rising. </p>
<p>Ok. So we wouldn’t know state cut off for semifinalist till September right?</p>
<p>Correct @sm577501 </p>
<p>How useful is commendation? Is there any scholarship for that?</p>
<p>September 10, 2014 is the date on which names of about 16,000 Semifinalists will be released to news media by NMSC.</p>
<p>In late September, more than two-thirds (about 34,000) of the approximately 50,000 high scorers on the PSAT/NMSQT receive Letters of Commendation in recognition of their outstanding academic promise (only 3.3% of the test takers, impressive - isn’t it?). Although Commended Students do not continue in the competition for National Merit Scholarships, some of these students do become candidates for Special Scholarships sponsored by corporations and businesses.</p>
<p>Hope this helps!</p>
<p>Thanks @snowberry42</p>
<p>Do we have to search for these special scholarships (for commended students) or is there some kind of list available form NMSC?</p>
<p>Student Guide lists the corporate sponsors. You may have to check with them. For my daughter, I submitted an online application to NMSC that will decide on the award of scholarships on my employer’s behalf.</p>
<p>Wait so the national merit commended for class of 2015 is 201 for sure right? That is the score I got…safe to say I’m ecstatic!</p>
<p>Woo hoo! 201! I’m opening the 12 dollar wine tonight!</p>
<p>Texas’ cutoff has never gone up when either the mean or the commended cutoff has gone down. Since both are down this year, that has got to be a good sign! Unless 2 negatives equals a positive…… uh oh.</p>
<p>Please all refer to my post from March 21. I predicted a 201 in the Big Multi-Million Dollar Giveaway. Those of you who placed bets but failed to mail in your $1,000,000 entry fee now owe me the money. You know who you are. </p>
<p>Now that I am a millionaire, I may actually open $13 wine.</p>