<p>@luvmygirls, you are a homeschooler also, right? Did you also get the letter that @isaelijohjac got? </p>
<p>@Barfly my guess was 202, so I guess I owe you. I’ll pour that glass of wine!</p>
<p>Thanks @mtrosemom. You’ll be pouring my second glass of wine as I opened the bottle immediately following my 10:24PM post. Such good news that the commended cutoff went down, but it will still be a loooooong wait for those of us on the bubble.</p>
<p>201 seems to line up with my earlier estimate that Ohio would go down a point or two. Typically the Ohio cutoff has been 12 points above commended and has never been more than 13 points higher. So…I am keeping my fingers crossed that history repeats itself and Ohio drops to 214/213. </p>
<p>Texas has never been more than 17 above commended.</p>
<p>Based on the 201 commended cutoff, I wonder what predictions we can make about where the 99 and 99+ percentile Selection Index will be. Seems like those should drop as well. Something to look at the next time I’m procrastinating.</p>
<p>Barfly- this is all great news! Unfortunately, I am not home until Tues. night, so hopefully I will find a letter waiting for us. I will update for sure!</p>
<p>Thanks @luvmygirls. Other than you and @isaelijohjac, I don’t know many high school principals well enough to ask about the letter. 
</p>
<p>what was commended score for 2014?</p>
<p>The Class of 2014 commended score was at 203, its highest ever, though it was also that high for the class of 2007.</p>
<p>@Barfly, can you make a prediction for NMSF for the state of Maryland? :p</p>
<p>Sorry, @shmluza, I am not the “predictor” on here. I’m just the guesser. I guessed right on the commended cutoff and now will be a millionaire as soon as all these CC deadbeats make good on their gambling debts. If they don’t pay, well I know where they live! </p>
<p>Drats! I don’t know where they live. Obviously a glitch in my evil plan. </p>
<p>One thing you might do for fun though is look at the historical state data on the college board website. You can see how many students fall in the top score brackets for different years and try to get a feel for which direction the cutoff may move, although after last year’s record high cutoff scores and this year’s drop in the commended cutoff, I think generally scores will go down. But the high number of test-takes this year may skew the numbers higher. I’m not sure - I’m not a statistics guru like some one here are! </p>
<p>@shmluza - that question was asked before. See page 29, response by @celesteroberts. My guess is 221 for this year (-2). </p>
<p>TBH is there a point to these predictions? I don’t mean to be rude, it seems that all the predictions do is raise anxieties for possible cutoffs, simply because we don’t know for sure how the cutoff scores will come out.</p>
<p>Oh wow…so a letter! How exciting…and to think only 34,000 other lucky seniors will get this special letter. Seriously, does the CB have us all under some crazy spell? I’ll go ahead and file it with the other special letters from “People to People” and “Who’s Who”. </p>
<p>Thank you @isaelijohjac. I asked my principal about it on Friday but he hadn’t received the letter yet. Good news for all that cutoffs are unlikely to move up this year and more likely down.</p>
<p>@Jarjarbinks23, nope, no point. There’s also no point in trying to predict the winners in of the NCAA tournament, but we all do that, too. </p>
<p>Oh I don’t know…I can think of up to about 148,000 reasons (UCF) why it’s important to some people to try and read the tea leaves. A glimmer of hope is better than no nope, and a shared psychosis is always easier to deal with than going it alone. I say muse away!! [-O< </p>
<p>@shmluza - for MD, my regression analysis is predicting a 220 (220.48 to be exact). Since there is no way you can have a fraction in your PSAT Index, the maximum cutoff will be 221.</p>
<p>@planner03, the “crazy spell” was placed by National Merit Scholarship Corp, not CB. I am personally going bonkers over this because the cutoff can make the difference between a full ride and nada. This is my 3rd round, and each time was different. First son scored 1 point below the all-time high. Very stressful few months, but he made it with a point to spare. Second son scored high enough that there was no stress at all. Current son tied our state’s all-time high. His dream school gives a nice package for NMF - 2 brothers there on full rides. And there’s the sibling rivalry. It’s like a cauldron full of crazy potion.</p>
<p>My son received the letter, dated April 8th, in the mail today. He is homeschooled.</p>