<p>College admission offers may get easier to obtain</p>
<p>[College</a> admission offers may get easier to obtain - latimes.com](<a href=“College admission offers may get easier to obtain”>College admission offers may get easier to obtain)</p>
<p>Thoughts?</p>
<p>Not a surprise that college selectivity is related to the size of the college applicant pool.</p>
<p>Thank goodness for small favors!</p>
<p>This would be encouraging, except I have a sinking feeling that son’s ED school is in the 10% that isn’t worried about filing their freshman class.</p>
<p>I hope the trend holds true for one more year for my D’15.</p>
<p>Here are the projections for high school graduation in the next several years:</p>
<p>[Table</a> 12. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_12.asp]Table”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_12.asp)</p>
<p>The local minimum will be in the 2014-2015 year (about 2.8% less than the local maximum of 2010-2011), followed by an increase after that.</p>
<p>However, college enrollment is projected to keep increasing:</p>
<p>[Table</a> 20. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions, by sex, attendance status, and control of institution: Fall 1996 through fall 2021](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_20.asp]Table”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_20.asp)</p>
<p>I’ve been reading the same story since 2010/2011 when my kid was applying.</p>
<p>FOr the highly selective schools, it won’t matter much. I believe Duke’s ED apps went way up.</p>
<p>There have been a few articles along these same lines recently, including the Washington Post (which continues to beat on poor old St. Mary’s in Maryland).</p>
<p>But, as the LATimes and WPost both state, the fewer-number-of-students trend will not affect the admission situation at “highly selective campuses.”</p>
<p>To be honest, I don’t care if the story is true or not. If it helps any of this year’s seniors (or their parents) sleep just a little bit better, then that’s fine with me.</p>
<p>I wonder if St. Mary’s is happy to have the word out that they need applicants. No such thing as bad publicity? [St</a>. Mary?s College of Maryland joins troubling trend: Too many empty freshman seats - The Washington Post](<a href=“http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/st-marys-college-of-maryland-joins-troubling-trend-too-many-empty-freshman-seats/2013/11/22/2fd1f8c0-489a-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story_1.html]St”>http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/st-marys-college-of-maryland-joins-troubling-trend-too-many-empty-freshman-seats/2013/11/22/2fd1f8c0-489a-11e3-b6f8-3782ff6cb769_story_1.html)</p>
<p>Making up for last years’ mistakes, they recruited in our high school this year. And more merit scholarships might partly offset the higher tuition compared to UM College Park, the excellent (but gigantic) flagship. </p>
<p>Will be interesting to see a list of other perfectly fine schools which might be motivated to attract more students (not just more applicants). And whether their tuition might go down to do so.</p>
<p>Thanks, UCBalumnus, for the data.</p>
<p>Although D’s 2015 graduating cohort decreases in size, the number projected to enter college increases, sigh. I’m glad BHG loves the safety schools on her potential list. I need to tell ex-DH to read this thread; we may have to increase what we expect to pay due to larger applicant pool for same pot of merit aid.</p>
<p>ucbalumnus, interesting tables, just wondering about how current they are if the numbers after 2010 are listed as projected and not actual?</p>
<p>^^^ The tables were created in January 2012 per the information at the bottom of each table. </p>
<p>It’s updated every other year from what I understand. The next update will provide actuals for 2011 and possibly 2012 with projections for all future years.</p>
<p>Projected high school graduates should be relatively reliable since they can measure enrollment in (for example) 7th grade to estimate 2018-2019 graduates (accounting for typical attrition like non-completion of high school, emigration, etc. which are likely fairly well estimated quantities).</p>
<p>The projections for number of students entering college also have the assumption of what percentage of high school graduates enter college, and how many non-traditional students will enter college. However, the increasing numbers here may affect the selectivity at the currently less selective colleges more than at the currently more selective colleges, since the high performing high school graduates aiming for the more selective colleges are probably already in the pool before the additional college-goers are added.</p>