“In the coming decade, many campuses will be desperate for students.”
That’s a deceptive headline. The kids who will face this brave new world of less stressful college admissions are currently in elementary school. Current high school students and many middle school students are still screwed by demographics. The headline makes it seem that this situation is imminent, and it really isn’t.
And a lot can chance economically during this time period.
Well that really sucks for us
Do you guys think that the prestige of top universities decrease as acceptance rates increase? Will millennial students’ degrees from top schools devalue as a result?
Not buying it. I remember when DS’18 was born they said with declining birth rates colleges would be begging for students. We all see how well that turned out. And the birth rate, after a slight dip, started rising again a few years later. Add to that the boom in international student applications, more students being encouraged to pursue higher education–I wouldn’t hold my breath on this.
Nothing will change at the elite universities. While the total number of college students may eventually decrease, the number of applicants to the top schools will continue to increase and the total, for all universities, may not even decrease by much. To the second point, the number of international students is growing, literally, exponentially. Yes, there was a slight reprieve in 2017 due to politics but that was a one year blip. To the first point, international students and the children of the last generation of international students are largely parented by tiger parents. Those kids all apply to the same small number of very top schools. On top of that, in 2007, the growth rate of international students took a big step up. Think step function in exponential growth rate. When the children of those people (probably being born right about now) hit college age, the growth rate in applicants to the top schools will also take a big step up. So, you know how the acceptance rates have been dropping steadily? Well, the rate of the drop in acceptance rates is going to accelerate around about 2035.
What you are already seeing with regards to the author’s subject, is that the diversity of the incoming student body is decreasing. That trend will continue and it will get worse, faster, around 2035. The number of white-American students in college started to decline in 2011. The number of white-American students entering college as freshman probably started decreasing two years prior in 2009. At the same time, the number of Asian-American students has been increasing, albeit not monotonically, and the number of international students has been increasing hyper-exponentially. Interestingly, the number of African-American students also started dropping in 2012. But that decrease has been dwarfed by the increase in Hispanic-American and undocumented students. At the very top schools, I believe we already have a situation where URMs are actually no longer underrepresented and white kids ARE underrepresented while Asian-Americans are way over-represented. And the trend is going to continue and the rate will increase around 2035. I am not sure how the Ivies and others will handle this going forward? Will their social justice conscience allow them to give preference to an underrepresented majority or will they find some twisted logic to continue down the path they are on? And what will the courts decide on the Harvard case? Will they allow an overrepresented minority become even more overrepresented at the expense of diversity? If they win the Harvard case AND the push to increase URMs to become even more overrepresented continues, white-Americans will become unicorns and only the ones who know there is a game afoot and have the resources to play the game will be found roaming the campuses of the top 30-50 schools or so.
International students may fill many vacant seats. Those colleges & universities which offer financial aid to internationals are leading the way.
Let the US serve the higher education needs of the world–or, at least, be a viable option for hardworking, intelligent & ambitious minds regardless of citizenship.
@huskyManiac "Nothing will change at the elite universities. "
This^.
The push for admission to top schools will continue to increase. It will be easier to get into schools outside the top 100 but that isn’t difficult now.
This headline is just clickbait.
^ Its so true. With over four thousand colleges in US, even if 3900 of them get easier it doesn’t change the picture at all, especially on CC.
“Those colleges & universities which offer financial aid to internationals are leading the way.”
Any financial aid provided to international students should be taxable (both federal and state) to the university. Why should our tax dollars go to subsidize the world’s students? These colleges with huge endowments are giving away their money via FA to international students, and that money (endowment) is not subject to any federal or state tax in the US. Not right.
It will not get any easier at the “CC Top Universities” or the Ivy plus schools.
@suzyQ7
You are on the money, excuse the pun! Americans should not pay to educate non-Americans, period. Funny how China and India don’t put huge tariffs on the importation of an American education. Any university that receives federal tax money for any reason should be forbidden to provide any financial aid to foreign students. If someone wants to start a fund for helping foreign students, great, but any donations to that fund should NOT be tax deductible.
I’ll take this further, the number of international students should be capped at some number. I am not sure what that number should be or if we are there yet but there should be a limit or, in theory, our universities could be filled entirely by foreign students. Now, I know we are no where near that yet but we shouldn’t even get remotely close to that hypothetical scenario. Universities are federally subsidized and, therefore, should be filled to some reasonable percent by American students. We should never get close to the scenario where tax payers can’t send their kids to college because the schools are full. And, no, I don’t care if the international kids have a better resume. Every American kid who wants to go to college should have the opportunity to do so. Back fill with internationals, not the other way around. It is time for China and India to accelerate the expansion of their own higher education systems.
^^^ I think if you applied this rule to all non-profits, including churches and charities, the argument is understandable. I am sure you do not mean to apply this rule just to colleges, right?
The effect would be to greatly reduce the number of international PhD students doing PhD study / research at US universities on the usual research / teaching assistantships. Some of them eventually become Americans making substantial contributions to the US economy and society.
Would there be enough Americans who want to do PhD study / research to replace them? As it is now, many of the most academically capable Americans choose Wall Street, consulting, medical school, or law school over PhD study.
There are too many PHDs anyway, but that is beside the point. PHDs are not getting FA just to study, they are getting paid to do research. International Undergrads are getting discounts just to study.
@Postmodern not sure what you are comparing. Colleges are giving gifts (FA) for foreign students to come study. Those gifts are earned tax free. Do charities give tax free money to foreigners?
Yes they do…for food, shelter, to build schools and roads and homes.
They are getting paid for a service then. Unlike undergraduates who are getting paid so they themselves can earn a degree.
@suzyQ7 , I assume they do, I just want to know if you believe it would be equitable to tax any non-profit that provides assistance to non-US citizens, and not just colleges.