College list and ranking schools

College Search & Lists
1

Four days before the 2017-18 Common App opens, I’m trying to finalize my college list. I’ve gotten it down from 20-something schools on my original college list that I made as a sophomore to 13 schools (I’m on my third version of my college considerations database :)) )
I’ve heard about the reach/match/safety ranking system, but I found it hard to categorize schools in this manner. Instead, I gave each school a number from 1-13 based on how much I want to go there regardless of academic rigor or prestige, and I placed the schools in tiers. Tier 1 is “slightly or considerably above” my academic stats (my current GPA+one point or more on a 100-point scale, my highest SAT+40 points or more out of 1600). Tier 2 is “close to” my stats (my current GPA +/- one point, my highest SAT +/- 40 points). Tier 3 is “slightly below” my stats (my current GPA -2 to 5 points, my highest SAT -40 to 200 points). Finally, Tier 4 is “considerably below” my stats (my current GPA -5 points or more, my highest SAT -200 points or more).
First things first, I want to know if this is a good ranking system.

Here are the schools I currently plan to apply to:

Tier 1:
Yale University (2)
Columbia University (3)
University of Pennsylvania (1)*

*UPenn might actually belong in Tier 2; the average admit’s stats are my GPA+1 point and my SAT+10 points.

Tier 2:
George Washington University (4)
Newhouse School @ Syracuse University (5)
Macaulay Honors College @ CUNY Baruch (11)
Macaulay Honors @ CUNY City College (12)
Macaulay Honors @ CUNY John Jay (13)

Tier 3:
Rutgers University (6)
Boston University (7)
SUNY Stony Brook (9)

Tier 4:
Howard University (8)
SUNY New Paltz (10)
Syracuse University general admission’ (5B)
CUNY Baruch general admission (11B)
CUNY City College general admission (12B)
CUNY John Jay general admission (13B)

Questions:

-Is this a good way to rank schools?

-I categorize Tier 1 as reach, Tier 2 as high match, Tier 3 as lower match, and Tier 4 as safety. For someone with a 97 GPA and 1490 SAT (will retake), does this list look accurate, or are my matches actually reaches, etc.

-Do I need any more schools? UConn, W&L, and Duquesne are still being considered. Is it even worth it at this point, or should I settle with these thirteen?

2

You should take into account each school’s admittance rate. So, even if you had a 100 GPA and 1600 SAT, Yale, Columbia and Penn would still be reaches/Tier 1 because they admit such a small number of applicants.

I’m not sure what set of stats you’re looking at for the schools, but colleges generally describe their admit results in terms of a 4.0 GPA. You can easily find a 100/4.0 equivalency chart on Google. Also, colleges report the range of SAT and ACT scores for the middle 50% of enrolled students.* You’ll probably find looking at that range more informative than just the average scores that you seem to be looking at. If you Google the name of a school and “common data set” you’ll find links to a set of standardized forms that most schools complete every year. Section C of the Common Data Set gives all sorts of admissions related information you will find useful in figuring out which tier or where in the reach/match/safety scheme each school fits for you.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with your tier approach and, as you’ve figured out, it pretty much shakes out to the same thing as the reach/match/safety scheme.

Every school you’re applying to should be some place you’d be happy to attend and that you can or are likely to be able to afford.

Reaches are schools you could plausibly get into, but for which your chances are small if for no other reason than their very low admittance rate. Most people have reaches, but no rule requires them. If you’re lucky enough to fall madly in love with a school you have a good chance of getting into and affording (match) or will (almost**) definitely get admitted to and be able to afford (safety), then lucky you. I realize this hasn’t happened to you, but it happens to some people.

  • I'm sure there's something useful to be said about the difference in stats for admitted vs enrolled students, but I don't know what it is.

**Some people say it’s only a safety if you are guaranteed admission. Others say that a statistically extremely high likelihood given your stats and the schools admit rate is sufficient.

3

One factor you may be overlooking is the net cost. Is that important to you? If so, what’s your strategy for managing it? Are you focusing on need-based aid, merit scholarships, low sticker prices, or some combination?

Yale, Columbia, and Penn don’t offer merit scholarships. Many of the others don’t necessarily offer the best available need-based aid. Almost all state universities charge higher prices to OOS students; many of them offer OOS students relatively little need-based aid.

It looks like you prefer urban colleges in the Northeast. In that case, you may also want to consider:
Georgetown
Johns Hopkins
Barnard (women only, small)
Trinity College (Hartford, small)
Wellesley (women only, small)
Tufts
Boston College
These are a bit less selective than your top 3, but like your top 3 do offer relatively good need-based aid.

4

I’m seeing a big difference in school selectivity between your “tier 1” and “tier 2”. Are there no schools in between that you might be interested in?

5

There a lot of factors that affect selectivity other than average scores, so your system seems to underestimate the difficulty of Tier 1, and make distinctions between Tier 2 and 3 that may not be that meaningful.

It does seem you have few truly “match” schools, as in “I might not get in, but I have a good shot.” Just going by the US News university list, you have the #3, 5, and 8 schools on it, and then go down to BU at 39, GW at 56, Syracuse at 60, Rutgers at 70, and all the others higher. So besides the state schools, you have maybe three high reaches, two matches, two low matches, and zero high matches or low reaches. I’d suggest adding a school or two in from the 20 to 50 range of US News, which would go from mid-reach to mid-match for you. Besides those mentioned above, it could be schools like Northeastern or Rochester, or else some good liberal arts colleges that are matches.

You also should consider money, as BU and GW are known for not being great with financial aid, while some schools that are somewhat more selective may have better financial aid. Really, really selective schools should be fine with financial aid, but that doesn’t help if you don’t get in to them.

6

@missacademy2018 Penn should definitely be on your first tier. Penn is known for caring more about GPA and other things (ECs, awards etc) than SATs and is known for giving a chance to candidates with top grades and other impressive things and very good (but not sky-high SATs). Plus Penn is a reach for anyone. Your 2nd tier is way less competitive than your 1st tier.

If Penn is your top choice, you should maybe consider ED. At Penn, ED gives a sizable boost.

7

I don’t think it’s a good way to rate schools at all. What about what you like about schools? You might like Syracuse more than Penn just because you like the area better, or the big name sports, or the dorms? What if there is a program at John Jay that attracts you, do you just not go because you’ve been accepted to a Tier 2?

8

OK, so I realized that the tier system isn’t really the same as reach/match/safety because it fails to account for selectivity. I looked back at my notes from my first college advisement session last year, and according to what I was told then, a safety school has a 75% or higher acceptance rate. But what halfway decent four-year school has an acceptance rate of 75% these days? Even CUNY York College, where the average admit has an 84 GPA and a three-digit SAT score, has a 37% acceptance rate. (That was among my safety schools before I realized there was no point in applying to a place I hated and was overqualified for.) Every school on that list has an admit rate of under 50%.

My reason for qualifying the schools based on academic stats was that, for example, at Howard, which has a 49% acceptance rate, I’d conceivably have a better shot at being admitted with a 97/1490 than someone with an 85/1000. If your SAT score is 1000, a schools that typically accepts 1200s is a reach for you, but if your SAT score is 1400, you’re way more likely to be admitted. Is this an incorrect assumption? Is it really all about acceptance rate?

@Wilson98 Visited Rochester. Not going to bother applying to it or any place like it, regardless of how prestigious the school is.

@Penn95 I’m applying to Penn (and Columbia and Yale) through the Questbridge National College Match. It’s like ED, except with multiple schools and a guaranteed full four-year scholarship if admitted.

@twoinanddone “What if you like Syracuse more than Penn just because you like the area better” I don’t. Went on a tour of Penn, visited Philly multiple times before that, just came back from a month away at SU.
“or the big name sports” Don’t care.
“or the dorms” I don’t.
I did rank the schools according to my own personal preference before I put them in tiers. There is some correlation between tier and rank, but not necessarily causation.

9

The overall admit rate alone is a rather weak rule-of-thumb. A better approach is to look at Naviance results for your school. If virtually every applicant with your combination of scores and GPA is admitted … and if your family is able & willing to cover the estimated net price … then it’s a safety. If Naviance isn’t available and you want to use admit rates alone, I’d say 50% (or even a bit lower) may be safe enough for someone with a realistic shot at the Ivies (or peers), as long as your family can cover the EFC. 50% or higher is the admit rate for some good directional state universities (such as UNC-Raleigh, Michigan State, or UMBC).

Note that the overall admit rate may be misleading for engineering and honors programs, or for women’s colleges, or for out of state public universities. Safety choices should take into account your qualifications, your family finances, the number of applications, and your risk tolerance. If UChicago accepts you in the EA round and you can afford to attend, then UChicago becomes a safety as you await other schools in the RD round.