For some reason it’s not letting me quote, but @aunt_bea - we know tons of kids at Oregon, Colorado and Arizona schools because they couldn’t get into their desired UC. If CA kids are open to CSUs or less competitive UCs, it’s a different story.
OP, you’ve gotten a lot of good advice about calculating you UC and CSU gpa - that will help a lot in determining if you’re competitive for some of the schools on your list. CalTech and Stanford would be extremely difficult unless there is something in your application that isn’t conveyed from GPA and test scores which are both low for those schools.
You mention the CC to UC path - it can be a great option. Are you interested in staying close to CA? Any other school preferences? Oregon State is one that could be a good fit for you. My friends daughter from CA has had a great experience there in mechanical engineering.