Comprosing chances at one school... is it worth it?

<p>I’m a rising senior, and I have my list of colleges set right already.
BUT, I have a pretty huge problem. My cumulative unweighted GPA by the end of this year will probably be a 2.8 or 2.9. My weighted GPA is fine, I guess, but I know that some of the schools will just end up recalculating it or only glancing over it. My low GPA stems from a bad freshman and sophomore year. I’ve managed to maintain an unweighted GPA of a 3.7 junior year though. I’ve always taken honors/AP classes, excluding my foreign languages, a required PE class, and a required fine arts class.
My dream school is BU, and it has been for years, but with my GPA I feel like the chances of me getting in are so slim. Now, my other problem is that for the school I consider my second choice, I feel like I have a better shot since I know how they look at GPAs, plus applying ED for that school REALLY helps. I don’t know if I should compromise going to BU by applying ED to my second choice instead, getting in, and never knowing if I could have gotten accepted at BU. But at the same time I feel like I’m just giving up, but realistically applying ED to my second choice is the safer route to go considering my GPA… what do you guys think?</p>